First, a short story:
I've seen this pattern drawn back in 2017, and I was in denial. Not because I thought bitcoin was a dead asset. It was because I had bought bitcoin at $15k, $11k, $7k, $5k - on the way down, not up. So you can imagine my mindset at the time - naïve, new to trading, and I had no idea what I was getting myself in to. My denial was drawn from the fact that everywhere I looked, it was "up only", "buy the dip" etc etc. My smooth brain at the time thought the drop from $20k to $5k was enough to propel us back up to $20k, where I would sell my bitcoin and make a cool 3x from my average buy price.
As we dropped below $5k and a certain country banned cryptocurrency trading, my heart sunk. Moved everything to cold-storage and only looked for sources of hopium wherever I could find it. Several that should have held, all broken. analyses breaking down. You can even see a post I made on "Bitcoin's death" dropping down to $3k. I was genuinely afraid that it might go to $0. Why? Because wherever you look during a crash like that, it's all bad news. And any good news you might see, gets beaten down. Despite my fear, I didn't have anywhere near my entire net-worth invested in this, so mentally I was okay with losing all my money - as you should be - since it's all so speculative.
At this point, we're in mid-2018, and bitcoin makes it's way up to $9-10k, giving you the hope that we're on for another bull run. If you actually zoomed out at the time, it was clear that we were not done yet. I see a chart similar to the one in this post, and I think "we have already crashed to $3k in a matter of months, if we were to follow this chart, we are going down to $2-$2.5k". You have to remember, our brains are not configured to zoom out and comprehend the big picture. If it was, you would not see such like you do in this market.
Fast-forward to December 2020, and we have crossed the 2017 highs of $20k and sitting comfy at $30k+. If you go back and visit the chart, you will see it's all programmed.
2018-2020 Bear Market breakdown:
- The top of the 2017 bull-run coincides with the top of the log channel
- PA riding the mid-line of the channel from June-October 2018 until it breaks down
- Breaks down to $3k towards January 2019, making you think we will touch the bottom of the channel
- A drive back up to $14k, tops out at the midline of the channel
- The final breakdown to $4k to touch eh bottom of the channel, there-by completing the bear market.
The market is designed to BREAK you. It will do it's best to make you lose. Nobody is giving out free money. This is something you must always remember. Once you understand this, you can conquer greed and truly realize your place in this market.
The PA from Jun-Oct 2018: designed to mess with you. Make you believe that you are riding the middle. The good news piles on, "Bear market ended?", "up only" posts begin. This is where you begin to convince yourself that the bear market is done, and the price market may actually be starting to pick up again. You don't want to miss out on the gains, right? Not again, surely?
We are dropping down to $3k bud.
How do you feel now? Ah yes, the classic: "This is going $2k". Why? Because you convince yourself with all the charts, that you are hitting the bottom of the channel; or you have seen "bitcoin to zero" etc. Also, please remember that at this time, The Tether FUD was peaking hard. People were genuinely worried about whether Tether was a scam. Funny enough, they were also exceptionally quiet until recently - conspiracy theory for another day.
So you don't buy bitcoin at $3k, obviously. Despite the number of times you told yourself when it was $20k, "man, I wish I bought bitcoin at $3k / $5k ...."
Anyway, I'm sure you get my point, and I don't need to breakdown every bit of the cycle in detail.
As of today, bitcoin has tested the midline of the log channel, retraced and flipped it into a support (many thanks to TESLA , we may have seen a huge resistance at the midline - potentially starting another bear market).
There is still scope for a retest of the midline of the log channel, which will only make me more .
Here's the weekly chart:
Now that I have presented to you what I believe are FACTS, what's your take on this? Do you think we will fulfill the channel? What is the top? Is there a top? On a MACRO level, there really is no top, in my opinion. The market however, moves in waves / bursts. Of course, this is all relying on the fact that there is some fundamental value to this ponzi - which I think we are way past the point of questioning.