Short

Updated

Will Bitcoin hold the 9K area?

Hello crypto friends,

As was mentioned in my previous idea Bitcoin will likely go down to test 9K again:

It was a good low risk trade.

Now Bitcoin is approaching bottom line of a descending triangle.
As you know the more often the price tests a support, the higher chances it won't hold.
Moreover, Bitcoin loves breaking descending triangles to the downside.

Comparing this triangle to the one on a bigger time frame we can see the same pattern and scenario that likely will happen.

I'm expecting BTC price drop to the 8.6K area and close CME gap. Afterwards we might expect pullback, but it is to early to talk about that.

What will happen next the price will tell.

This idea is not a financial advise, but you probably know that already ;)

Note

Noticed gap on Coinbase after today outage:

Never before saw a gap on Coinbase. I wonder how it will be closed?

Note

Bitcoin is showing some strength. After retracing to 0.786 fib BTC is building bullish engulfing structure. Crushing markets do not behave like this. There is a possibility that 9K holds and price will test 9500-9700 area, then afterwards retrace to the bottom again:

Remember to manage your risk. My SL is in breakeven. I'm waiting for marker decision in a completely safe position, I hope you too.

Note

If Bitcoin consolidates above 9200 this idea will be invalidated:

Note

Bitcoin met serious resistance at 9.3K level and failed to break through it.
Idea still valid. But my SL was triggered at 9305 :(
I'll watch price action to reenter the trade.

Note

Gap was filled!
But not that one on CME you might thought :)
Yesterday gap on Coinbase was closed with that upper wick:

I'm wondering what if that pump was tied to gap closure?

Note

As you might know Coinbase is a regulated exchange in the USA. Therefore, leaving the gap open may lead to allegations of manipulation by the authorities.

Note

Re-entered the trade but at much less attractive prices. Still my risk below 1%, so it's totally nothing comparing to R:R I have in this trade.

Note

Wow! That last wick was violent with high volatility:

Price keeps being rejected by upper triangle line

Trade closed: stop reached

Bitcoin just broke the upper resistance line out of triangle:

Note

Sl triggered again. That time I lost a tiny amount, nothing to care about. Hope you are safe too.

Note

Previous resistance line tested as a support. Seems like 9K level holds:

Still needed a confirmation with a daily candle closed above that line

Note

We might be in a bigger triangle formation as well:

Thanks for reading, see you in future updates!

V0ld3mar

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V0ld3mar