Similar Situations to Play Out from 2014
The price fell below the 50 week sma in 2014 and this is what is happening the past few weeks here in 2018 and I want to discuss it.
This is how 2018 could play out if it follows in the similar direction of what happened in 2014 (which has been what is happening this entire time since 20k) in my opinion
This analysis is starting in the week of 2018-5-21 where the price is breaking the 50 sma
The dates below are referencing the monthly lows before the capitulation and complete breakdown of the bubble in 2014
I am comparing percentage breakdowns of the 2014 price breaking bearish on the 50 sma (these are generalized, if you want exact %'s then go back in the charts and find out)
--- 15% in 2014-8-11 ----> to 6500
--- 30% in 2014-9-22 ----> to 5300
--- 50% in 2014-9-29 ----> to 3700
These numbers are very generalized and aren't concrete, this is just for a high level understanding of where we are at in this short time frame of price dropping to lows we haven't seen in a few months.
These support levels are meant to be broken in my opinion and 2018 is like 2014 in terms of the percentage breakdown of what happened except it's happening 2x faster.
People that tell me that I shouldn't compare 2018 to 2014 bc 2014 there was Mt. Gox and blah blah but let me tell you my side of the story and why I feel like this is true and why the chart I made 2 months ago is still holding up
PS: I am bullish long term Bitcoin however I am NOT bullish on ICO's printing their own money and selling them as securities that aren't registered with the SEC... however those all will get hacked, fail, get sued or their centralized owners will go to jail. Then it will drop the price on those coins and it it be bad for the entire crypto space because a lot of people think blockchain is going to save the world but in reality Bitcoin is the miracle that solved the double spending problem and the centralized issue of money, all the other ones are just copies that promise unrealistic things and things that don't even require blockchain, they just require really nice centralized relational replicated databases like SLQ Server or Oracle (Blockchain's are expensive and irreversible!!). And they try to move fast and break things and apply different types of cryptography outside of what Bitcoin uses and the thing is Bitcoin has never gotten hacked and it's the oldest crypto out there, therefore they are going to get hacked or the SEC is going to put a halt on them... There are already 4 coins that have gotten hacked so far and that is 4 of many to come, the Chairman of the SEC has came out and spoke publicly to CNBC about how all these ICO's are securities and you know they are preparing their troops, if justice is truly given)
That's just how I feel with all the research I've been doing, here are the links to back me up just so you guys have the knowledge as well!
youtube.com/watch?v=wFr1ooaVPjY
sec.gov/news/public-statement/statement-clayton-2017-12-11
sec.gov/ICO
theverge.com/tldr/2018/5/16/17361750/sec-cryptocurrency-ico-investors (SEC warning people not to participate in ICO's by creating their own fake HoweyCoin, this is like the Wolf on Wall Street as these ICO's are doing pre sales and on top of that they aren't even registered with the SEC... Bitcoin is NOT a security)
medium.com/@jimmysong/why-bitcoin-is-different-e17b813fd947
medium.com/@lucidfunds/bitcoin-let-me-be-perfectly-clear-a2ecf5c2e37b
blog.coinswitch.co/verge-bitcoin-gold-and-monacoin-hack-all-you-need-to-know-585062c00c35
coindeskhub.com/altcoin/zencash-zen-latest-alt-coin-suffers-51-double-spend-hack/
Hope all is well and that you are all having a nice Sunday!
Best,
Brendan
This is how 2018 could play out if it follows in the similar direction of what happened in 2014 (which has been what is happening this entire time since 20k) in my opinion
This analysis is starting in the week of 2018-5-21 where the price is breaking the 50 sma
The dates below are referencing the monthly lows before the capitulation and complete breakdown of the bubble in 2014
I am comparing percentage breakdowns of the 2014 price breaking bearish on the 50 sma (these are generalized, if you want exact %'s then go back in the charts and find out)
--- 15% in 2014-8-11 ----> to 6500
--- 30% in 2014-9-22 ----> to 5300
--- 50% in 2014-9-29 ----> to 3700
These numbers are very generalized and aren't concrete, this is just for a high level understanding of where we are at in this short time frame of price dropping to lows we haven't seen in a few months.
These support levels are meant to be broken in my opinion and 2018 is like 2014 in terms of the percentage breakdown of what happened except it's happening 2x faster.
People that tell me that I shouldn't compare 2018 to 2014 bc 2014 there was Mt. Gox and blah blah but let me tell you my side of the story and why I feel like this is true and why the chart I made 2 months ago is still holding up
PS: I am bullish long term Bitcoin however I am NOT bullish on ICO's printing their own money and selling them as securities that aren't registered with the SEC... however those all will get hacked, fail, get sued or their centralized owners will go to jail. Then it will drop the price on those coins and it it be bad for the entire crypto space because a lot of people think blockchain is going to save the world but in reality Bitcoin is the miracle that solved the double spending problem and the centralized issue of money, all the other ones are just copies that promise unrealistic things and things that don't even require blockchain, they just require really nice centralized relational replicated databases like SLQ Server or Oracle (Blockchain's are expensive and irreversible!!). And they try to move fast and break things and apply different types of cryptography outside of what Bitcoin uses and the thing is Bitcoin has never gotten hacked and it's the oldest crypto out there, therefore they are going to get hacked or the SEC is going to put a halt on them... There are already 4 coins that have gotten hacked so far and that is 4 of many to come, the Chairman of the SEC has came out and spoke publicly to CNBC about how all these ICO's are securities and you know they are preparing their troops, if justice is truly given)
That's just how I feel with all the research I've been doing, here are the links to back me up just so you guys have the knowledge as well!
youtube.com/watch?v=wFr1ooaVPjY
sec.gov/news/public-statement/statement-clayton-2017-12-11
sec.gov/ICO
theverge.com/tldr/2018/5/16/17361750/sec-cryptocurrency-ico-investors (SEC warning people not to participate in ICO's by creating their own fake HoweyCoin, this is like the Wolf on Wall Street as these ICO's are doing pre sales and on top of that they aren't even registered with the SEC... Bitcoin is NOT a security)
medium.com/@jimmysong/why-bitcoin-is-different-e17b813fd947
medium.com/@lucidfunds/bitcoin-let-me-be-perfectly-clear-a2ecf5c2e37b
blog.coinswitch.co/verge-bitcoin-gold-and-monacoin-hack-all-you-need-to-know-585062c00c35
coindeskhub.com/altcoin/zencash-zen-latest-alt-coin-suffers-51-double-spend-hack/
Hope all is well and that you are all having a nice Sunday!
Best,
Brendan
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