BITCOIN - A Fresh Look

Having removed everything from the chart and looking at a higher time frame, it became glaringly obvious that not much has changed. I seem to have a habit of getting slightly too caught up in fractals, such as the pennant. And with the pennant set in place and completed considering that any bounce above the thrust exit of the pennant would invalidate regression and invalidate my wave 4 into wave 5.

And for anyone that may have followed may EW count - wasn't it strange the lack of impulse exiting the pennant?

But deleting everything and starting again, also reminding myself of Occam's razor and looking for simplicity, I noticed that on a higher time frame there is no pennant, and that the total retracement is as it is has been this whole corrective phase - 0.786. And then that means wave 4 is still ongoing, just not with a pennant as a key structure.

On a side note, I have noticed that certain fibs and fractal structures are leading me astray. And I am thinking that this is just more smart-money foolery. Of course, the pennant that breaks down then up and up.

Anyhow shorting at 37.2K.

Not advice.

Trade closed: stop reached:

Sold at support 37.6K. I'm all done on the short side for this season. I'll update with a bit more detail later.

Comment:

So whats changed here?

Firstly, if I had to guess I would say that the trend continues down eventually to another capitulation, but my strategy is somewhere closer to being a trading-investor, not a trader. So i could jump back in here, see the divergence on the RSI etc, but there are a few problems that I'll outline here:

1) The primary thesis my trades were based upon was - upside regression. If you don't know what this means, a simple analogy would be to think of a ball bouncing down a hill at a constant incline. No retracing fibonacci reversal should exceed the previous reversal in retracement, just as the bouncing ball would never bounce higher than previous bounce. In both cases the movement is passive.. But in this recent bounce it has retraced to 0.886 - higher than previous 0.786.

2) In Neowave a very useful tenet is that "the fastest move dictates the dominant trend." In this bounce we can see it is faster than the previous bounce without any significant prior capitulation.

So I'm going to sit this out and watch a bit. If I have confidence in the trend - a tight price band or a return to SOW at 43K then I may short again.

And this recent wave could be an X wave, but I'm not sure. If any EW buffs, maybe @ianrdouglas, want to say if they think X wave or not go ahead. I don't know and from past experience I know don't knows don't make me any money.

Comment:

Also, I've been tracking Bitcoin setting up these shorts since March, and where are we now - June. I probably need to look away for a little while...

Really my main interest in this market is to go long next cycle. Its fun to trade against longs, but the real game is to buy at the bottom and HODL!

Comment:

And on that note I will set up a group in a bit. I will get around to it but I have decided it is for this purpose alone - finding the bottom, not shorting nor bounces, so there really is no rush at all. And who knows maybe if there is some interest I'll try to add some educational element to it while we wait it out through the bear market.

I'm on PM if you want to join. If I don't respond immediately, don't worry, I will.

Trade active:

Looks bearish now. Staggering back in.