Long

BTCUSD: Titanic effort...long term guess

Updated

Let's see how my understanding of price patterns and fundamental and postioning/sentiment related variables stack up against the facts: I think will trend up strongly from here onwards, but the path is not yet fully clear. If prices move similarly to how I think they will between now and April, a new all time high will materialize, after confirming a long term trend signal, which would propel prices towards the vicinity of 290k by Sept-Oct 2021...

The time duration of the rally would extend significantly, if this were to come to pass, since a new Timemode signal would be active, implying a strong continuation of the trend that started when price jumped up from 442 in 2016. For this to be an ideal price pattern, a move like this would need to occur (or, worse, a drop to 6449 or a bit lower, before rallying again, but I think this bearish scenario is negated now).

Options and futures expirations are causing significant moves, and prices tend to be shaken up by the action of derivative traders more and more, so I included this variable into my long term analysis of here.

We're currently long from a very good average cost basis, and aiming to ride this move up for as long as it lasts. Let's see if we validate my scenario over time. Guesses like this are only good to test a hypothesis, the actual trading comes from day to day analysis of real time data and sentiment, as well as news, options and futures positioning and activity, and validation of expected post pattern behavior for each technical forecast as we move forward. The end result is that ideally we are positioned to exploit bouts of volatility, to the upside or downside as they come, and end up surpassing simply buying and holding the instrument at hand.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

Note

So far so good...Let's see what happens by end of year.

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Since my entry is 6544 I'm hedged using options in case prices decline further, but don't lose money if they go up from here instead. I've banked margin longs increasing the #BTCUSD stash by a bit less than the cost of hedging with put options.
Not a bad deal overall, 0 USD loss if prices go below my entry, and only a modest BTC loss if they go up instead.

Last: 6904.95

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Once #BTCUSD retests the 6449.78 level we may look into buying back (or selling hedges), if I'm right we won't see price hit 6094.86 (ideally)

If price were to move lower, we may have to change our long term bias in #Bitcoin and #Crypto as a whole. Make or break situation...

Trade active

Bot back 6450, sold some hedges. I have other options positions to profit from my forecast panning out as well.

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2 weeks for news that might make the market move dramatically, 3 weeks for the expiration of the bearish signal on chart. If the target is not reached, it's very bullish for the next 13 weeks until over 10350.

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Daily view, the dip was absorbed by strong buyers, short sellers are losing ground, I think they might end up cornered and squeezed.

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The move up began, hang on tight!

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Daily #BTCUSD had a target at 8568.39 that was not yet hit, there's time until next Tuesday to reach it, the thing is this trend expires right before the SEC decision news, so it may be a bit risky by the time news are out

Let's hold all positions and wait

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Buyers have absorbed the selling a few times here, if we go higher by the end of the day, hitting the target by Tuesday or sooner will become a higher probablity event.

Overall, there is ample chance I caught the bottom in with my last buy at $6450 (market only got to 6425 and bounced). I like how bearish everyone has been since then. Bullish!

Note

, target hit on time, log scale, first mode to trigger, and new smaller mode signal, two targets on chart, look at how volume is growing through the day, prices staying near the high...bullish as shite.
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/s/SNloTjCZ.png
Former low vol resistance levels turned support (notice the red boxes that turn green)

Price will likely move towards the 10350 level soon, the weekly downtrend that started there is about to fail for good. Once over that level we may trigger a long term signal indicating price will go towards 42 to 290k by 2021...And also a mid term signal which has yet to confirm. Odds are good overall. HODL

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This illustrates why prices rallied until today in #BTCUSD, daily signals were active until now, so a sideways range is likely to occur here, for 12 days, that puts us moving higher by the 28th, by then the 10000 31 Jan call we sold will be in some profit

Target was hit for the smaller trend signal that kicked off 4 days ago, price slowed down near the target zone...logical. Bigger mode signals formed below, ran out of time in the last couple days, latest one expiring today on close.

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Next daily signal can reach between 9974.43 and 10827.93, which would be enough to confirm the long term uptrend I expect in #Bitcoin. For it to trigger we need to hold sideways here first, and then confirm an advance moving up sharply from this area

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Sentiment in #BTC had dropped as if price had fallen to $7000, despite holding up over support at. Looks constructive, if we hold over 8798 over time, we may get a nice trend signal, as I anticipate

Hodl!

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Traders started to sell rallies only after the market bottomed at 6425, according to #Bitfinex margin positioning data. This trend should continue as we move higher, if I'm right about the long term trend

It's good to see such change in sentiment.

Sentiment is now worse than it was at the 6425 bottom. It should react soon, ideally, if not, tomorrow with expiration of futures contracts. Buyers need to step up, else we are at risk, although it's a lower probability scenario.

Trade active

BTFD

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I'm guessing today will be an inside day, tomorrow could be an outside bar, going under last two days worth of lows, to then close near the highs, after breaking over a previous day or two worth of highs...the weekly downtrend expiration will be confirmed by tomorrow's close, which would look good if prices react this way to it.
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/w/wFWOps33.png

Note

Inside day, today is even stronger than an inside bar, higher high, higher low, and bigger range than previous day's range from low to high, measured from today's open. So today's directional move is 'expanding the range' relative to the previous bar's range. Volume is also larger than yesterday's, overall bullish.
If we close near the highs, higher, bulls are in control, further validating the weekly thesis, 10350 would be in store for #Bitcoin as the next hurdle for bulls.

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#BTCUSD daily targets on chart:

Holding over 8550 we should move higher until Feb 4th, reaching prices as high as 9818 or as much as 11130, best case.

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The weekly signal more or less aligns with the forecast I had made near the bottom in #BTC:

A break of the all time high surrounding the halving date, and some volatility to shake people out by then is not a crazy thing to expect.

IvanLabrie

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