Bitcoin historical moment... Will it crash to $1500?
Updated
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Since November 14, Bitcoin has been going through a massive selloff. In 6 days price declined by 32%, while hitting todays’ low at $4411. Price reached the lower trendline of the descending channel and almost tested the 78.6% Fibonacci support level at $4387.
The Crash
BTC/USD is facing yet another support level, which up until now has been rejected. However, the trend remains very bearish even further drop can be expected. If current support is broken, BTC could go lower, towards the 3k, or even 1.5k level. Potentially, such decline would result in a total loss of 92% since the all-time high. Considering the huge volatility within the cryptocurrency market such scenario can be expected.
Trend clues
But let's look at the upside potential in this bearish market. Current support is holding, and while price remains above, range trading or a correction to the upside should be expected. In our previous idea 4.8k support level has been mentioned, and it's yet to be seen whether the daily close is above or below it. If BTC/USD will close the day above 4.8k, probability of a range trading or a strong correction will become more likely.
Positive scenario
Talking above the positive scenario, it would probably take more time for the BTC to reverse, as next Fibonacci cycle indicating on October 2019, that is nearly a year from now. Yes, this is how long it could take for the uptrend to resume. Yet, cryptocurrency market can be very unpredictable and volatile. Considering that, one can assume the probability of a fast reversal, similar to what has happened to the Monero, back few years ago. The idea to the Monero reversal vs Bitcoin comparison can be found down below.
Volatility is good
The good thing is that the volatility has returned that is positive news for the overall cryptocurrency market. In strong declines such as this one, investors might see opportunities, thus more money will be poured in the cryptocurrency market. This, indeed, could be the reversal moment, but as has been said, it could take a long time before it happens.
Bearish scenario
Now let's observe the bearish scenario and potential bottom. Based on the Fibonacci time zone indicator, along with the extended descending channel, BTC/USD could go as low as $1500. But if Bitcoin will ever get to this price, it could be truly a long waited buying opportunity for institutional investors. Talking about the timeframe, price would ether move towards that level very slowly, or with the current volatility, could be reached within few weeks or even days!
Risk taking
Staying cautions and not taking risking big in this market, seems to be one of the optimal ways to go. Having said that, Bitcoin believers might be holding BTC even during big drops, and what’s more, they can even accumulate more. Only time will tell the true outcome, but in this idea, we are happy to share our vision of possible outcomes.
Since November 14, Bitcoin has been going through a massive selloff. In 6 days price declined by 32%, while hitting todays’ low at $4411. Price reached the lower trendline of the descending channel and almost tested the 78.6% Fibonacci support level at $4387.
The Crash
BTC/USD is facing yet another support level, which up until now has been rejected. However, the trend remains very bearish even further drop can be expected. If current support is broken, BTC could go lower, towards the 3k, or even 1.5k level. Potentially, such decline would result in a total loss of 92% since the all-time high. Considering the huge volatility within the cryptocurrency market such scenario can be expected.
Trend clues
But let's look at the upside potential in this bearish market. Current support is holding, and while price remains above, range trading or a correction to the upside should be expected. In our previous idea 4.8k support level has been mentioned, and it's yet to be seen whether the daily close is above or below it. If BTC/USD will close the day above 4.8k, probability of a range trading or a strong correction will become more likely.
Positive scenario
Talking above the positive scenario, it would probably take more time for the BTC to reverse, as next Fibonacci cycle indicating on October 2019, that is nearly a year from now. Yes, this is how long it could take for the uptrend to resume. Yet, cryptocurrency market can be very unpredictable and volatile. Considering that, one can assume the probability of a fast reversal, similar to what has happened to the Monero, back few years ago. The idea to the Monero reversal vs Bitcoin comparison can be found down below.
Volatility is good
The good thing is that the volatility has returned that is positive news for the overall cryptocurrency market. In strong declines such as this one, investors might see opportunities, thus more money will be poured in the cryptocurrency market. This, indeed, could be the reversal moment, but as has been said, it could take a long time before it happens.
Bearish scenario
Now let's observe the bearish scenario and potential bottom. Based on the Fibonacci time zone indicator, along with the extended descending channel, BTC/USD could go as low as $1500. But if Bitcoin will ever get to this price, it could be truly a long waited buying opportunity for institutional investors. Talking about the timeframe, price would ether move towards that level very slowly, or with the current volatility, could be reached within few weeks or even days!
Risk taking
Staying cautions and not taking risking big in this market, seems to be one of the optimal ways to go. Having said that, Bitcoin believers might be holding BTC even during big drops, and what’s more, they can even accumulate more. Only time will tell the true outcome, but in this idea, we are happy to share our vision of possible outcomes.
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