Bitcoin: pick your target
Updated
As I expected, we very slowly and weakly ran into resistance and rejected it, once more.
This is it. It is highly likely we are now entering the final phase of denial.
This is probably going to be the week the price sells off. Finally!
We are I believe - this part is speculation and does not impact how we should be trading this - going to fall to the lower line of the bearish pennant, sit there 2-3 days, then fall violently as I described in a previous idea. Apocalypse style.
Once again, just like back in July and November, crypto investors are extremely aggressive and on edge.
Someone is going to get tired of this and sell, and someone will follow, and someone else.
As usual the ones that run for the exits first will get out with just a few scratches.
The way Bitcoin is moving, in a repetitive manner, is nothing unlike what we have seen before:
After Bitcoin price stops being range bound and starts going down, I expect 2 to 5 weeks to reach target.
The reward to risk is AT LEAST 3 to 1 here, 4 to 1 if stop loss is a little tight, more if target is lower and/or stop tighter.
Careful for fake pumps, this is why I prefer not having a stop too tight.
4 to 1 is already pretty insane!
My personal target has not changed too much for the past 12 months now, and is still $1800.
If this idea gets more than 50 likes I will have a little surprise in 1 month :p
Once the selloff starts you can use this trendline as a trailing stop if that is how you roll.
If the price goes back up something is wrong.
Looking like the usual market cycle, nothing special.
If there is a new bubble in the future, it will be in minimum 10 years and the absolute top will be $13,000.
This is it. It is highly likely we are now entering the final phase of denial.
This is probably going to be the week the price sells off. Finally!
We are I believe - this part is speculation and does not impact how we should be trading this - going to fall to the lower line of the bearish pennant, sit there 2-3 days, then fall violently as I described in a previous idea. Apocalypse style.
Once again, just like back in July and November, crypto investors are extremely aggressive and on edge.
Someone is going to get tired of this and sell, and someone will follow, and someone else.
As usual the ones that run for the exits first will get out with just a few scratches.
The way Bitcoin is moving, in a repetitive manner, is nothing unlike what we have seen before:
After Bitcoin price stops being range bound and starts going down, I expect 2 to 5 weeks to reach target.
The reward to risk is AT LEAST 3 to 1 here, 4 to 1 if stop loss is a little tight, more if target is lower and/or stop tighter.
Careful for fake pumps, this is why I prefer not having a stop too tight.
4 to 1 is already pretty insane!
My personal target has not changed too much for the past 12 months now, and is still $1800.
If this idea gets more than 50 likes I will have a little surprise in 1 month :p
Once the selloff starts you can use this trendline as a trailing stop if that is how you roll.
If the price goes back up something is wrong.
Looking like the usual market cycle, nothing special.
If there is a new bubble in the future, it will be in minimum 10 years and the absolute top will be $13,000.
Note
Oh dam I got 50 likes. I will publish my surprise in 1 month, and I will post the link as an update of this idea.Btw, there is so much bad news I did not make a list, but there is 1 (yet another) pretty huge one that was obvious, but some people were still arguing:
Tether is not backed by real money.
Pretty interesting that this has stayed under the radar.
Crypto community is 100% in denial. People ignoring all the wash trading, tether admiting they lied, and underwater bulls did not sell. It is the dictionary definition of denial.
"Refusal to admit the truth or reality of something (such as a statement or charge)".
So we're probably not at the bottom.
About that tether thing, the exact story is they said that Tether was not 100% backed by official currencies. So now no one can argue. They do not have the money in the bank (I wonder where it went? Boats and private jets?).
My speculation is 1 boats and private jets and 2 they printed money out of thin air to pump Bitcoin even thought no one gave them dollars for these usdt.
Note
If that was the top and Bitcoin goes down from here, then I was off by a few hours...I really do not think we will see 3 green months in a row but who knows...
It's both looking like 2014-2015 denial and bottom :D
Could ponzi exchanges kindly exit scam when the month ends? Would be great!
Note
Here is my surprise:
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