Hi guys and gals hope you are well. Today I want to show you how the Bitcoin is getting ready the parabolic move after the halvening. Before that we will watch the different bearish and bullish scenarios on short term and midterm charts.
The bearish BAT:
In my previous article we have already seen that on short term 4 hour chart the price action of BTC has formed a bearish BAT pattern. And from the potential reversal zone of this BAT the price action has been reversed bearish several times. Now this time the priceline of Bitcoin is moving up again towards the potential reversal zone of this BAT pattern. Now it remains to be seen whether this time the price action of the leading cryptocurrency will be able to cross this reversal zone or not.
The price action has been bounced from support of channel:
On one day chart the price action of Bitcoin was moving with the support of an up channel and finally the price action is bounced from this support. And this time it is crossing the 25 simple moving average resistance. If we take a look below the price action then the 50 simple moving average has formed a golden cross with 100 and then 200 simple moving averages. As we have discussed earlier in my previous articles that the golden cross between the 50 and 200 is considered as a strong buying signal among the traders community. Therefore the traders has entered and they may lead the price action up to the resistance of the channel that is almost at $10,500. Moreover we can see that the smallest time period moving average 25 is above all other simple moving averages and 200 SMA is also moving down. Once the 200 SMA will come under all other moving averages then a complete opened alligator mouth will be formed by the SMAs that can produce more powerful bullish rally and the price can go up very fast.
Exponential moving average once again worked well as support:
iF we watch the movement of the exponential moving averages on the daily chart then it is also very optimistic and positive. We can see that since the exponential moving average 10 crossed up the exponential moving average 21 and the price action also crossed the both EMAs these moving averages are working as a very strong support for the priceline of BTC. And several times the price action has used these supports to move more up. This time again the price action was using these to EMAs as support and finally the Bitcoin is likely to take the next bounce to start the next rally. It can be also seen that EMA 10 was moving down and went very close to the exponential moving average 21 and was likely to form death cross but fortunately it is moved up again and lifting the price action.
EMAs on daily chart:
If we switch to the long-term weekly chart then exponential moving average 10 has crossed up the exponential moving average 21 and formed a bull cross. That is also another very powerful bullish signal. Therefore now we have the support of these two EMAs not only on the daily chart but also on the weekly chart as well.
EMAs on weekly chart:
Oscillators and momentum are turning bullish:
On the daily chart the oscillators and the momentum are also turning bullish. In my previous post we have discussed that if the relative strength index is moving down and the price action is moving sideways upwards then finally the price action can embrace the trend of RSI and start bearish move. And on this chart from 8th May to 27th May 2020 the RSI was in down trend. But this time RSI is likely to break out this trend and changing the trend. The stochastic has also given bull cross from almost oversold zone and if we watch the momentum indicator then it is also turned weak bearish from strong bearish that is also another bullish signal and I am expecting that soon it will be turned strong bullish and will lead to another bullish rally.
Another attempt to breakout resistance $10K:
The ten thousand dollar has become a very strong resistance for the price action of Bitcoin as it is not broken out since September 2019. During this time period price action has made several attempts to break out this resistance level but unfortunately sofar it is unsuccessful to do so. As we have seen that all indicators on daily chart at turning bullish and the price action has also bounced from the support of the channel and moving averages are also showing bullish signals therefore we can expect that this time the pricceline of Bitcoin will again make another attempt to break out this resistance of $10,000.
Multi year based triangle and rejection line:
Now if we switch to the long-term weekly chart then can be easily observe that the price action of Bitcoin has formed a very big multiyear based symmetrical triangle since 2017. And the resistance of this triangle has become a very strong rejection line for the leading cryptocurrency. As the price line has been rejected from this line in December 2017 then again it was rejected in July 2019 after that it has been rejected in February 2020 and at this time the price action is again trying to break out this resistance level. But this time the triangle is quite squeezed and the price action of BTC is at the end of triangle. Therefore it is a decision making time for the priceline to Bitcoin to out or break down the resistance or support of this symmetrical triangle soon.
These golden crosses can be the 1st step towards long term parabolic bullish move:
In my point of view the chances of break out from this multi your based symmetrical triangle are more than breaking down the support. Because if we watch the simple moving average with the time period of 25, 50, 100 and 200 on this long term weekly chart then it can be easily observed that the price action has already bounced from the 200 simple moving average. And the 50 simple moving average is above all other moving averages and 200 simple moving average is already below all other moving averages. Now we need the smallest time period moving average 25 above all these moving averages that will form an opened alligator mouth of SMAs that can lead the priceline to start long term parabolic bullish move to achieve the highest price ever in the history of the Bitcoin. We have already witnessed such parabolic move after the formation of an oppnened alligator mouth by these simple moving averages before 2017 as well. Therefore I am waiting for this due move of 25 simple moving average to cross up the 50 simple moving average to complete this bullish setup for the priceline of leading cryptocurrency to turn parabolic soon.
Conclusion:
On short term in midterm we can see a bullish rally at least up to $10000 as the price action has bounced from the support of channel and all indicators are turning bullish. But on the long-term the price action of Bitcoin is setting up for a very big bullish parabolic move to achieve highest price ever.
Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.
The bearish BAT:
In my previous article we have already seen that on short term 4 hour chart the price action of BTC has formed a bearish BAT pattern. And from the potential reversal zone of this BAT the price action has been reversed bearish several times. Now this time the priceline of Bitcoin is moving up again towards the potential reversal zone of this BAT pattern. Now it remains to be seen whether this time the price action of the leading cryptocurrency will be able to cross this reversal zone or not.
The price action has been bounced from support of channel:
On one day chart the price action of Bitcoin was moving with the support of an up channel and finally the price action is bounced from this support. And this time it is crossing the 25 simple moving average resistance. If we take a look below the price action then the 50 simple moving average has formed a golden cross with 100 and then 200 simple moving averages. As we have discussed earlier in my previous articles that the golden cross between the 50 and 200 is considered as a strong buying signal among the traders community. Therefore the traders has entered and they may lead the price action up to the resistance of the channel that is almost at $10,500. Moreover we can see that the smallest time period moving average 25 is above all other simple moving averages and 200 SMA is also moving down. Once the 200 SMA will come under all other moving averages then a complete opened alligator mouth will be formed by the SMAs that can produce more powerful bullish rally and the price can go up very fast.
Exponential moving average once again worked well as support:
iF we watch the movement of the exponential moving averages on the daily chart then it is also very optimistic and positive. We can see that since the exponential moving average 10 crossed up the exponential moving average 21 and the price action also crossed the both EMAs these moving averages are working as a very strong support for the priceline of BTC. And several times the price action has used these supports to move more up. This time again the price action was using these to EMAs as support and finally the Bitcoin is likely to take the next bounce to start the next rally. It can be also seen that EMA 10 was moving down and went very close to the exponential moving average 21 and was likely to form death cross but fortunately it is moved up again and lifting the price action.
EMAs on daily chart:
If we switch to the long-term weekly chart then exponential moving average 10 has crossed up the exponential moving average 21 and formed a bull cross. That is also another very powerful bullish signal. Therefore now we have the support of these two EMAs not only on the daily chart but also on the weekly chart as well.
EMAs on weekly chart:
Oscillators and momentum are turning bullish:
On the daily chart the oscillators and the momentum are also turning bullish. In my previous post we have discussed that if the relative strength index is moving down and the price action is moving sideways upwards then finally the price action can embrace the trend of RSI and start bearish move. And on this chart from 8th May to 27th May 2020 the RSI was in down trend. But this time RSI is likely to break out this trend and changing the trend. The stochastic has also given bull cross from almost oversold zone and if we watch the momentum indicator then it is also turned weak bearish from strong bearish that is also another bullish signal and I am expecting that soon it will be turned strong bullish and will lead to another bullish rally.
Another attempt to breakout resistance $10K:
The ten thousand dollar has become a very strong resistance for the price action of Bitcoin as it is not broken out since September 2019. During this time period price action has made several attempts to break out this resistance level but unfortunately sofar it is unsuccessful to do so. As we have seen that all indicators on daily chart at turning bullish and the price action has also bounced from the support of the channel and moving averages are also showing bullish signals therefore we can expect that this time the pricceline of Bitcoin will again make another attempt to break out this resistance of $10,000.
Multi year based triangle and rejection line:
Now if we switch to the long-term weekly chart then can be easily observe that the price action of Bitcoin has formed a very big multiyear based symmetrical triangle since 2017. And the resistance of this triangle has become a very strong rejection line for the leading cryptocurrency. As the price line has been rejected from this line in December 2017 then again it was rejected in July 2019 after that it has been rejected in February 2020 and at this time the price action is again trying to break out this resistance level. But this time the triangle is quite squeezed and the price action of BTC is at the end of triangle. Therefore it is a decision making time for the priceline to Bitcoin to out or break down the resistance or support of this symmetrical triangle soon.
These golden crosses can be the 1st step towards long term parabolic bullish move:
In my point of view the chances of break out from this multi your based symmetrical triangle are more than breaking down the support. Because if we watch the simple moving average with the time period of 25, 50, 100 and 200 on this long term weekly chart then it can be easily observed that the price action has already bounced from the 200 simple moving average. And the 50 simple moving average is above all other moving averages and 200 simple moving average is already below all other moving averages. Now we need the smallest time period moving average 25 above all these moving averages that will form an opened alligator mouth of SMAs that can lead the priceline to start long term parabolic bullish move to achieve the highest price ever in the history of the Bitcoin. We have already witnessed such parabolic move after the formation of an oppnened alligator mouth by these simple moving averages before 2017 as well. Therefore I am waiting for this due move of 25 simple moving average to cross up the 50 simple moving average to complete this bullish setup for the priceline of leading cryptocurrency to turn parabolic soon.
Conclusion:
On short term in midterm we can see a bullish rally at least up to $10000 as the price action has bounced from the support of channel and all indicators are turning bullish. But on the long-term the price action of Bitcoin is setting up for a very big bullish parabolic move to achieve highest price ever.
Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.
