This is my first chart, please be gentle!
In the chart above I have tried to show how all past cycles have have played out in very similar and (hopefully) predicable patterns.
When you zoom right out to the 1 month candles and look at the whole picture from 2011 to 2018 things look a lot more positive. The price is still sitting within a long term channel and I've drawn some ellipses to highlight previous market cycles and the patterns they form. The longer I'm in this game the more I realise that the patterns that form over the longer timeframes are not shaped by any individual news events, rather it would appear that the news cycle is following the long term price pattern - the cart is pulling the horse.
The final ellipse I have drawn covering 2018 - 2019 is only in play if we have found the bottom which is still not confirmed. If a break down does occur and bitcoin price moves under $6k then I will have to adjust the length and depth of the ellipse but if the chart above plays out and we are currently on the bottom then I would expect a return to the all time highs of $20k by September 2019 and at that point the beginning of a new bull run/hype cycle up to around $100k - $150k.
This is my first attempt at technical analysis so constructive feedback would be appreciated!
In the chart above I have tried to show how all past cycles have have played out in very similar and (hopefully) predicable patterns.
When you zoom right out to the 1 month candles and look at the whole picture from 2011 to 2018 things look a lot more positive. The price is still sitting within a long term channel and I've drawn some ellipses to highlight previous market cycles and the patterns they form. The longer I'm in this game the more I realise that the patterns that form over the longer timeframes are not shaped by any individual news events, rather it would appear that the news cycle is following the long term price pattern - the cart is pulling the horse.
The final ellipse I have drawn covering 2018 - 2019 is only in play if we have found the bottom which is still not confirmed. If a break down does occur and bitcoin price moves under $6k then I will have to adjust the length and depth of the ellipse but if the chart above plays out and we are currently on the bottom then I would expect a return to the all time highs of $20k by September 2019 and at that point the beginning of a new bull run/hype cycle up to around $100k - $150k.
This is my first attempt at technical analysis so constructive feedback would be appreciated!