Is this the big picture: btc follows curves setup by the halving

Thus far it looks like BTC follows curves setup by the four yearly halvings (arrows). Presumably at each halving the
price is in a new 'paradigm' - more expensive than the last. The price adjusts coming into it and then starts rising under the new conditions.

Comment:

At the start of a halving coins are more expensive to mine - the supply is being turned off so the price rises. After two years we know the supply in two years time will undergo a step change to reduce supply further at the 'mid-point' the price should fall as its 'comparatively' cheap.

Comment:

@PentarhUdi - looking at the extension of his long term btc prediction in August to this week the recent 20k and 6k high and lows uncannily hit the second and third trend lines which implies that we will be starting a run to a new high to complete the bull run for this halving!