BTC Elliott Wave current counting
Hello Everyone,
Today I decided to present you my most probable Elliott Wave counting.
Although Elliott Wave can be a potent tool that can make you profitable if used wisely, sometimes there could be a margin of interpretation from the trader, resulting in painful mistakes.
When analysing a chart using Elliott Wave, there are instances where the counting is crystal clear, so there is very little subjectivity to it and others where the counting is foggy and doubtful.
The best way to use the Elliott wave is to have 2-3 possible counting, with one being the preferred one and the second and 3rd on the pipeline if the preferred one fail.
Nevertheless, a trader must constantly update his wave counting to account for "unexpected" market turns.
Here I present you my two most possible scenarios, with the third one laid out in the following description.
In the short term, sometimes it can be easy to catch market turns and trade with the trend especially using candlesticks and basic horizontal resistance and support zones. However, when trying to forecast precisely the market for the next year, things can get a bit more complicated.
Now to contextualise BTC: As I explained for the whole of 2021, BTC has completed the primary 3rd wave, and we are now either still in the 4th wave (correction) or in the minor wave 1 of intermediate wave 3 of primary wave 5. In my opinion, there is no doubt BTC will be soon starting its way up to 100k, with my final target at 185 - 190k. Now consider this, let's look at the possible scenarios here presented:
SCENARIO 1:
In this scenario, I have kept my original idea that back in May, BTC concluded a violent zigzag correction setting the end of wave 4 and starting wave 5 back in July. This one was my preferred wave counting, and it is still valid to a certain degree. However, things got complicated with the last correction. BTC failed to hold above the previous main high, entering the price area of intermediate wave 1. One of the main rules of Elliott wave is "wave 4 never enter the price area of wave 1 unless in a diagonal triangle". I do not think this one was wave 4 of primary wave 5. I believe (considering this scenario) that we are in wave 2 of intermediate wave 3 of primary wave 5. To make it simple, BTC is in the correction before the most aggressive impulse wave (wave 3), which will bring BTC to 104k in the short term (1-2 months). As you can appreciate from the chart, I believe the wave count fits this idea well with this retracement. This scenario considers the last wave up an extended wave 1 with wave 2 retracing to the 0.786 of wave 1. This is very much possible. However, what makes me sceptical is this retracement entering the price of the previous intermediate wave 1 (July till September impulse wave).
Considering this scenario, BTC is now bottoming out and will start a very aggressive wave 3 soon, with the final target at 130k (perfectly fitting the main primary cycle idea).
Although this was my preferred scenario, I consider now this a possible scenario placing this idea as the second most likely wave count.
SCENARIO 2:
This is my preferred count right now. As previously explained in other ideas and videos, the recent retracement was far more aggressive than expected. This has pushed the previous scenario explained back due to the price entering the price area of the previous impulsive wave. This has caused me to think that BTC is probably forming an ascending triangle. This is a very common correction pattern in wave 4 as it takes longer than a simple correction (Flat, ZigZag) and creates a solid base (accumulation) for the next strong impulse wave (Wave 5).
As it can be appreciated from the chart, triangles are formed by 5 waves which each subdivide into 3 waves (3-3-3-3-3). This fits the current price action well, especially with the recent two impulse wave being almost identical in price movement, which is typical of ZigZags correction (characteristic of a triangle).
Each wave often retraces 0.618 of the previous one. However, this differs depending on the type of triangle. In an ascending triangle, the counter-trend waves retrace 0.618; however, the waves in the trend direction extends, forming new higher highs.
Considering this scenario, BTC should start the 4th ZigZag correction bringing a new ATH. After this, there will be one last retracement 0.618 of the previous ZigZag concluding primary wave 4 and beginning a strong wave 5, which will possibly push BTC behind my 185k target.
Lastly, SCENARIO 3:
This is the less probable scenario, and as explained in other videos, it considers that BTC may be in a big expanded flat, which will push prices down to 21k. This is the less likely scenario; hence I didn't include it in the visual part of the idea.
In conclusion, the next BTC move will tell us which of the 2 main scenarios is correct.
A decisive break out of the ATH with a successful retest would validate the first scenario. Instead, a fakeout at the ATH will validate the second scenario (currently the most probable).
I hope you have been able to follow my idea.
Which of these scenarios is your pick? (Comment below either, scenario 1, scenario 2 or scenario 3)
Have a great profitable new year.
FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
Today I decided to present you my most probable Elliott Wave counting.
Although Elliott Wave can be a potent tool that can make you profitable if used wisely, sometimes there could be a margin of interpretation from the trader, resulting in painful mistakes.
When analysing a chart using Elliott Wave, there are instances where the counting is crystal clear, so there is very little subjectivity to it and others where the counting is foggy and doubtful.
The best way to use the Elliott wave is to have 2-3 possible counting, with one being the preferred one and the second and 3rd on the pipeline if the preferred one fail.
Nevertheless, a trader must constantly update his wave counting to account for "unexpected" market turns.
Here I present you my two most possible scenarios, with the third one laid out in the following description.
In the short term, sometimes it can be easy to catch market turns and trade with the trend especially using candlesticks and basic horizontal resistance and support zones. However, when trying to forecast precisely the market for the next year, things can get a bit more complicated.
Now to contextualise BTC: As I explained for the whole of 2021, BTC has completed the primary 3rd wave, and we are now either still in the 4th wave (correction) or in the minor wave 1 of intermediate wave 3 of primary wave 5. In my opinion, there is no doubt BTC will be soon starting its way up to 100k, with my final target at 185 - 190k. Now consider this, let's look at the possible scenarios here presented:
SCENARIO 1:
In this scenario, I have kept my original idea that back in May, BTC concluded a violent zigzag correction setting the end of wave 4 and starting wave 5 back in July. This one was my preferred wave counting, and it is still valid to a certain degree. However, things got complicated with the last correction. BTC failed to hold above the previous main high, entering the price area of intermediate wave 1. One of the main rules of Elliott wave is "wave 4 never enter the price area of wave 1 unless in a diagonal triangle". I do not think this one was wave 4 of primary wave 5. I believe (considering this scenario) that we are in wave 2 of intermediate wave 3 of primary wave 5. To make it simple, BTC is in the correction before the most aggressive impulse wave (wave 3), which will bring BTC to 104k in the short term (1-2 months). As you can appreciate from the chart, I believe the wave count fits this idea well with this retracement. This scenario considers the last wave up an extended wave 1 with wave 2 retracing to the 0.786 of wave 1. This is very much possible. However, what makes me sceptical is this retracement entering the price of the previous intermediate wave 1 (July till September impulse wave).
Considering this scenario, BTC is now bottoming out and will start a very aggressive wave 3 soon, with the final target at 130k (perfectly fitting the main primary cycle idea).
Although this was my preferred scenario, I consider now this a possible scenario placing this idea as the second most likely wave count.
SCENARIO 2:
This is my preferred count right now. As previously explained in other ideas and videos, the recent retracement was far more aggressive than expected. This has pushed the previous scenario explained back due to the price entering the price area of the previous impulsive wave. This has caused me to think that BTC is probably forming an ascending triangle. This is a very common correction pattern in wave 4 as it takes longer than a simple correction (Flat, ZigZag) and creates a solid base (accumulation) for the next strong impulse wave (Wave 5).
As it can be appreciated from the chart, triangles are formed by 5 waves which each subdivide into 3 waves (3-3-3-3-3). This fits the current price action well, especially with the recent two impulse wave being almost identical in price movement, which is typical of ZigZags correction (characteristic of a triangle).
Each wave often retraces 0.618 of the previous one. However, this differs depending on the type of triangle. In an ascending triangle, the counter-trend waves retrace 0.618; however, the waves in the trend direction extends, forming new higher highs.
Considering this scenario, BTC should start the 4th ZigZag correction bringing a new ATH. After this, there will be one last retracement 0.618 of the previous ZigZag concluding primary wave 4 and beginning a strong wave 5, which will possibly push BTC behind my 185k target.
Lastly, SCENARIO 3:
This is the less probable scenario, and as explained in other videos, it considers that BTC may be in a big expanded flat, which will push prices down to 21k. This is the less likely scenario; hence I didn't include it in the visual part of the idea.
In conclusion, the next BTC move will tell us which of the 2 main scenarios is correct.
A decisive break out of the ATH with a successful retest would validate the first scenario. Instead, a fakeout at the ATH will validate the second scenario (currently the most probable).
I hope you have been able to follow my idea.
Which of these scenarios is your pick? (Comment below either, scenario 1, scenario 2 or scenario 3)
Have a great profitable new year.
FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
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