Good morning again ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to my daily look into the world we call Bitcoin. Today I pulled up the 4hr time frame after retaking 28k (and losing it) overnight. No sweat though right? We crested around 28600 which means we created a new ATH. Very impressive bulls! 2 more days (including today) left in 2020. Can we maintain these levels into 2021? Lets take a look at what is going on with my busy chart this morning.
There is a lot going on so I am going to cut to the chase this morning. We created a higher high overnight which I mentioned already. As long as we are consistently creating higher highs the bullish run isnt over. Although we do seem to be stalling out just under 29k. Perhaps this is the top but I will tell you I am sure not betting against the bulls. Not after what I have seen them do over the past few months. But when higher highs are evident on the major time frame it gives traders confidence as higher highs are typically viewed as bullish.
I noticed that there was a small bearish divergence forming. RSI dropping while the price of BTC rose. This is inconsistent and therefore falls under the divergence category. I dont expect it to cause a huge drop or anything. At least not on its own. Sometimes a divergence is lackluster at best. Other times it can be the catalyst to a big dump. We have a big 2000 dollar + gap below us from last weekend and in order to fill that gap we need to drop to around 23500. Imagine being a noob in Bitcoin that just joined during this pump. They may see a drop to 23500 as bearish. LOL. But when you spent nearly 3 years below 20k anything above 20k is a beautiful site.
I see my trading set up is finally beginning to catch up to the candles. I love and hate this. You see when these indicators I use on the regular (50 MA 200 MA and the cloud) are far below that is usually bullish as the candles rose so fast it left moving averages and the cloud far behind. The 4hr time frame shows us pretty much caught up to the candles (maybe not the 200 MA) But the daily has been pretty far above my trading set up. It still is which is one reason I have avoided analyzing it as much as say the 4hr. But even the daily time frame shows my trading set up catching up to the candles. Its been a long time coming.
Lets look at the bigger picture. The 4hr time frame and the daily and weekly shows us all the same thing. We are above the key indicators I use to determine bullish vs bearish. The 50 MA and the 200 MA along with the cloud are all below us on these major time frames and as long as that remains the case I am still bullish. We have over 50 billion USD in 24 hour volume over the past 24 hours. The market cap for the King is over 500 billion dollars. That is goldman sachs money folks. All in a decentralized system with no centralized entity calling the shots. You see certain alts that shall remain nameless have centralized figure heads that can call the shots. Its a degree of centralization that some find helpful. I mean one person calling the shots sounds good in theory. Perhaps consensus can be reached faster if a centralized figure calls the shots. But that is what makes Bitcoin so unique. I guess what I am trying to get at is XRP is being sued by SEC. Someone told me Bitcoin was next. LOL. Who will the SEC go after? Satoshi? Good luck with that. No centralized figure would make it nearly impossible for the SEC to approach Bitcoin in any legal manner.
Alts flew after Bitcoin relented back in 2017. As soon as we reached 20k 3 years ago we saw a decline in the price of BTC within a day or so. That money flowed into alts triggering what is widely known as "Alt Season". I have my eyes on Bitcoin like always but alts too. Although there is no guarantee that alts perform like 2017 but I am still watching. I remember back when I first got into Bitcoin, XRP was the big deal in alts. I mean I remember co workers coming up to me saying XRP broke 1 dollar. Than 2 dollars. Than 3 dollars. It was parabolic. I believe a lot of this XRP pump detracted from the BTC pop. It stifled the run IMO. This go round XRP got almost no love. In fact it was quite the opposite this go round. The alts listed below Bitcoin (or most of them) have been pretty boring. Alts were the hot topic back in 2017-2018. Back then we didnt have the halving directly at our backs. This pump we do. So there is a difference. I will be watching. If money starts flowing from BTC watch for alts to pop. No guarantees but that money is going to flow into somewhere. Either into alts or into bank accounts and now that people (US) are surely getting their stimulus the money may not flow as fast from BTC. But time will surely tell if that is the case. In the mean time please be smart with your investments my friends. Learn to manage risk properly. Lets end 2020 on a high note folks! And remember WTFDIK???
TLDR: New ATH 28,600 USD. Still above my set up on the major time frames. Higher high created over night. If we lose the 4hr 50 MA look out below (IMO)
There is a lot going on so I am going to cut to the chase this morning. We created a higher high overnight which I mentioned already. As long as we are consistently creating higher highs the bullish run isnt over. Although we do seem to be stalling out just under 29k. Perhaps this is the top but I will tell you I am sure not betting against the bulls. Not after what I have seen them do over the past few months. But when higher highs are evident on the major time frame it gives traders confidence as higher highs are typically viewed as bullish.
I noticed that there was a small bearish divergence forming. RSI dropping while the price of BTC rose. This is inconsistent and therefore falls under the divergence category. I dont expect it to cause a huge drop or anything. At least not on its own. Sometimes a divergence is lackluster at best. Other times it can be the catalyst to a big dump. We have a big 2000 dollar + gap below us from last weekend and in order to fill that gap we need to drop to around 23500. Imagine being a noob in Bitcoin that just joined during this pump. They may see a drop to 23500 as bearish. LOL. But when you spent nearly 3 years below 20k anything above 20k is a beautiful site.
I see my trading set up is finally beginning to catch up to the candles. I love and hate this. You see when these indicators I use on the regular (50 MA 200 MA and the cloud) are far below that is usually bullish as the candles rose so fast it left moving averages and the cloud far behind. The 4hr time frame shows us pretty much caught up to the candles (maybe not the 200 MA) But the daily has been pretty far above my trading set up. It still is which is one reason I have avoided analyzing it as much as say the 4hr. But even the daily time frame shows my trading set up catching up to the candles. Its been a long time coming.
Lets look at the bigger picture. The 4hr time frame and the daily and weekly shows us all the same thing. We are above the key indicators I use to determine bullish vs bearish. The 50 MA and the 200 MA along with the cloud are all below us on these major time frames and as long as that remains the case I am still bullish. We have over 50 billion USD in 24 hour volume over the past 24 hours. The market cap for the King is over 500 billion dollars. That is goldman sachs money folks. All in a decentralized system with no centralized entity calling the shots. You see certain alts that shall remain nameless have centralized figure heads that can call the shots. Its a degree of centralization that some find helpful. I mean one person calling the shots sounds good in theory. Perhaps consensus can be reached faster if a centralized figure calls the shots. But that is what makes Bitcoin so unique. I guess what I am trying to get at is XRP is being sued by SEC. Someone told me Bitcoin was next. LOL. Who will the SEC go after? Satoshi? Good luck with that. No centralized figure would make it nearly impossible for the SEC to approach Bitcoin in any legal manner.
Alts flew after Bitcoin relented back in 2017. As soon as we reached 20k 3 years ago we saw a decline in the price of BTC within a day or so. That money flowed into alts triggering what is widely known as "Alt Season". I have my eyes on Bitcoin like always but alts too. Although there is no guarantee that alts perform like 2017 but I am still watching. I remember back when I first got into Bitcoin, XRP was the big deal in alts. I mean I remember co workers coming up to me saying XRP broke 1 dollar. Than 2 dollars. Than 3 dollars. It was parabolic. I believe a lot of this XRP pump detracted from the BTC pop. It stifled the run IMO. This go round XRP got almost no love. In fact it was quite the opposite this go round. The alts listed below Bitcoin (or most of them) have been pretty boring. Alts were the hot topic back in 2017-2018. Back then we didnt have the halving directly at our backs. This pump we do. So there is a difference. I will be watching. If money starts flowing from BTC watch for alts to pop. No guarantees but that money is going to flow into somewhere. Either into alts or into bank accounts and now that people (US) are surely getting their stimulus the money may not flow as fast from BTC. But time will surely tell if that is the case. In the mean time please be smart with your investments my friends. Learn to manage risk properly. Lets end 2020 on a high note folks! And remember WTFDIK???
TLDR: New ATH 28,600 USD. Still above my set up on the major time frames. Higher high created over night. If we lose the 4hr 50 MA look out below (IMO)