Sawcruhteez

Trading Strategy for Parabolic Markets [Part 3]

Long
NYSE:C   Citigroup, Inc.
In part 1 I outlined an approach that I have been working on that is aimed towards trading parabolic markets. In part 2 I outlined 4 trades with entries, stop losses and risk:reward calculations. The best position (in terms of risk:reward) has been saved for last.


Notes: Tyler Jenks says, “All hyperwaves are bubbles but not all bubbles are hyperwaves.” This looks much more like a legit bubble than a hyper wave. Weekly chart has been included to illustrate that. | 200 MA > 10 MA > 50 MA | ADX is getting ready to cross 20 in confluence with the bull flag breakout | Weekly ADX getting ready to cross below 20 | Price is currently below 200 day MA and is acting as resistance | 50 week MA is also acting as resistance | Daily RSI = 56.81 and weekly RSI = 53 | Visible Range Volume Profile shows all of the volume at $19 - $50 and very little resistance at higher prices. Since this is not a hyperwave the VRPR and FIB Retracement levels will be very important. The profit targets are also much easier to recognize/calculate.

Q-2 Earnings Report: Deposits: Expected earnings per share: $1.54 vs $1.62 actual earnings per share for a +5.19% surprise. $996.7B vs Projection: $1.009T | Fixed income trading revenue: $308B vs Projection: $3.11B' | Sales from consumer banking and institutional clients: $8.25B & 9.691B for a growth of 2% & 3% respectively.

Time Analysis: Could see it gapping over the 200 day MA on Monday, could also see months of consolidation to follow death cross from 4/26 and ADX falling below 25 on weekly chart.

Possible Entries: Breakout above 200 day MA and 50 week MA - I have set a price alert at $75.59 | Breakout above local high of $81.54 (second price alert) | 50 and 200 day MA golden cross

Risk: Need new low to be established on the weekly after breaking through the 200 MA. If use current low then the risk is 21.25%.
Profit Targets: $125 (+56%) | $236 (+195%) | $399 (+398%)
Risk:Reward: Depends on how much is profit is capitalized at each target and where the next weekly low comes in. Suffice it to say this is the best r:r out of all the positions listed. When there are too many good opportunities for an entry then I like to use the risk:reward ratio to determine the best entry.

Part 1
Part 2

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