A tactical CHF short.... Central Bank combo
=> In this particular example we are outguessing a break of a channel and confirming further wide chop with the cross.
=> This week is busy from a monetary policy perspective and with both the Norges Bank and SNB in play we decided to use the CHFNOK as the main course...
=> Thursday is the rainmaker here; whilst the SNB are likely to portray a dovish tone especially after the recent CHF rally... Norges Bank will deliver a 25bp hike.
=> This hike is widely priced in and expected so anything else will shortcircuit the NOK across all other pairs.
=> It is also worth mentioning the late cycle rally in oil. Those following our portfolio know we have already begun positioning to the sell side in oil because of the late cycle.
=> This means we are using a strategic short here in CHFNOK not only as a central bank highlight of the week but also as a hedge to our oil shorts in our portfolio.
=> Overall a complex call that makes sense to us...Best of luck all
=> This week is busy from a monetary policy perspective and with both the Norges Bank and SNB in play we decided to use the CHFNOK as the main course...
=> Thursday is the rainmaker here; whilst the SNB are likely to portray a dovish tone especially after the recent CHF rally... Norges Bank will deliver a 25bp hike.
=> This hike is widely priced in and expected so anything else will shortcircuit the NOK across all other pairs.
=> It is also worth mentioning the late cycle rally in oil. Those following our portfolio know we have already begun positioning to the sell side in oil because of the late cycle.
=> This means we are using a strategic short here in CHFNOK not only as a central bank highlight of the week but also as a hedge to our oil shorts in our portfolio.
=> Overall a complex call that makes sense to us...Best of luck all
Comment:
8.409x Cleared and partial profit booked... lets see how the rest goes.
Comment:
A flawless range so far; 8.4980x - 8.4166x
Comment:
Bears in full control
