DABUR INDIA – AT A CRUCIAL SUPPORT ZONE

1. Company Overview

• Dabur India Ltd is one of India’s leading FMCG companies with deep roots in Ayurveda and natural healthcare.
  
• It operates across Home Care, Personal Care, Healthcare, and Foods, serving both domestic and international markets.
  
• The company’s ongoing strategy focuses on rural distribution expansion, premiumisation of products, and margin improvement through operational efficiency and cost control.
  

2. Technical Analysis

• On the monthly timeframe, Dabur’s long-term trend shows a strong up-move — from below ₹10 in 2001 to an all-time high of ₹658 in 2021.
• Since 2021, the ₹658–₹672 zone has acted as a major resistance, while the ₹470–₹490 zone has consistently provided strong support.
• The same zone, which acted as resistance in 2018, has now turned into a demand zone.
• Currently, the stock is trading around ₹511, exactly near the support region and showing signs of reversal from the demand zone.

Projection & Key Levels:

If Q2 FY 2025–26 results come positive, the stock may move toward:

• 1st Target: ₹550
  
• 2nd Target: ₹600
  
• 3rd Target: ₹650
  
  
• However, if this zone fails to sustain, there should be no further expectations, as the maximum swing low lies near ₹430.
• This gives a clear roadmap for both upside potential and downside risk.

3. Financial & Fundamental Analysis (FY 2024–25)

• Revenue (FY 2024–25): ₹ 12,563 crore vs ₹ 12,404 crore in FY 2023–24 (+1.3% YoY)
• Net Profit (FY 2024–25): ₹ 1,740 crore vs ₹ 1,811 crore in FY 2023–24 (–3.9% YoY)
• Revenue growth remained modest, while profit declined slightly due to margin pressures and cost factors.
  
• Q1 FY 2025–26: Reported steady performance with stable volumes and controlled expenses.
  
• Q2 FY 2025–26: Yet to be declared — this quarter will be crucial in deciding near-term price direction.
• Debt Levels: Long-term borrowings have continued to decline, reflecting financial discipline and improved leverage.
  
• Valuation: Dabur trades at a moderate premium to the FMCG sector average due to its strong brand portfolio and steady financial track record.
  

4. Technical Indicators Summary

• RSI (14): ~63 — showing underlying strength, not overbought.
  
• MACD: In buy mode, supporting short-term bullish sentiment.
  
• Moving Averages:
• MA 50 – ₹ 495
  
• MA 100 – ₹ 492
  
• MA 200 – ₹ 510 (currently acting as short-term resistance)
  
• Support Zone: ₹ 470 – ₹ 490
  
• Resistance Zone: ₹ 658 – ₹ 672
  

5. Combined View — Technicals + Fundamentals

• Technically, the stock is taking support at a strong demand zone with clear upside potential if the next results are favorable.
  
• Fundamentally, Dabur remains financially stable with a robust brand base and controlled debt.
  
• A positive Q2 FY 2025–26 can act as a catalyst for a rally toward ₹ 550 / ₹ 600 / ₹ 650, whereas a break below ₹ 470 may extend the fall toward ₹ 430.

6. Conclusion

• Dabur India stands as a fundamentally strong and technically interesting setup within the FMCG space.
  
• The stock is trading near a long-term support zone, offering a good risk–reward setup for investors.
  
• If Q2 FY 2025–26 results are strong, the stock may begin a fresh upward leg toward ₹ 650 levels.
  
• Conversely, if the stock breaks below ₹ 470, the trend may remain weak toward the ₹ 430 zone.
  
• For long-term investors, this zone offers a strategic accumulation opportunity backed by stability, strong distribution, and consistent brand power.