elp

9.5 Year low of a secular bull market?

DJCFD:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
This post is for my future reference only. The previous two secular bull markets made a 9.5 year low before continuing their secular bull markets. Currently this year with the consolidation we have seen, price could be setting up to make a low this November/December where after the low is in place, the current secular bull market would resume to make new highs.

Second, everyone is a bear or bearish . All we hear is how long this bull market has lasted. However, we did have a bear market in 2015. Even though price did not correct 20%, the Dow, SPX and NDX corrected with time and burned off their bullishness. On Google Trends this past February, "stock market crash" made the highest search rating since 2004. Google Trends showed how quick everyone becomes a bear. This is a hated secular bull market.

I could be wrong 100% with my thinking, but if we witness a sudden drop in prices similar to February of this year. Where price holds the Feb/April lows as support, I believe price would go on to new highs. Lets say price breaks the Feb/April lows in a shock and awe plunge. With everyone jumping on the bear market band wagon, with hardly any bulls left, I believe it would offer at least a break even long on a reactionary bounce, if this time is truly different.


Time will only tell. Best to everyone at Tradingview!





Oct 23
Comment: If this time rhymes with 1942 and 1984, look for a low in November/December with a rally lasting 3-4 years with a rally of 130% to 150%. All bs by looking left.

Comments

Currently we have extreme bear market sentiment. Tops are usually euphoric with the majority being a bull.
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elp elp
Cycle tops? The May 2015 top made an equal distance in time with the October 2007 top and the March 2000 top. The next possible market top, if this is just not plain bullshit (which it probably is), could be in December 2022. This would hint the market could have an upside bias for the next three years.
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elp elp
S&P500 Yearly Chart. The Bullish DI is above the ADX. The ADX is above 25 and pointing higher. The ADX w/DI has a bullish bias on a yearly chart.
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