Another 48h - Apparently A Difficult Start For DXY Today

2024/11/21
Another 48h - Apparently A Difficult Start For DXY Today
“strong intraday breakout yesterday, after a four-day downtrend!
will it goes further today? or will we fall back into the trend channel?”


NVDA yesterday, after the closing bell on Wall Street, of course with good numbers - even if the sales forecast was far from meeting the whispered estimates of the average expectations of the analysts. But appearances are deceptive: "The unpaid invoices are increasing faster than the group's sales!" told me an analyst, friend of mine, from a cfd online broker. Which smells like the company wants to present itself to the public as more profitable than it actually is. Personally, I don't have NVDA on my watchlist, the hype is far too big for me, even if I miss out on some few profitable long 4XSetUps. Both companies and analysts, not to mention all the media that report on it every day - like me here on the DXY , for example - have probably raised their expectations to such a high level that sooner or later, more or less, only can still become a fantastically absurd spiral of progression. But I don't (yet) want to go as far as my analyst friend, who still tells me today, "that was and is a practice that Enron also used back then." However, it is unclear how much of the unpaid invoices NVDA recorded as sales in the quarter now reported - as is the question of what impact the turbulence at major customer SMCI is having on the chip giant. In Europe, the stock opened over -1% today and is currently trading over +1% 1 hour before the opening bell on Wall Street.

“The fact that a thesis is flawed does not mean that we should not invest in it as long as other people believe in it and there is a large group of people left to be convinced. The point was made by John Maynard Keynes when he compared the stock market to a beauty contest where the winner is not the most beautiful contestant but the one whom the greatest number of people consider beautiful. Where I have something significant to add is in pointing out that it pays to look for the flaws; if we find them, we are ahead of the game because we can limit our losses when the market also discovers what we already know. It is when we are unaware of what could go wrong that we have to worry.”
George Soros

• Will We Fall Back In The W Trend Reversal Formation?
  
• Will We Defeat The Old Annual High Of 2024?
  
• Are We Heading To Annual Highs Of 2023?
  

These are the 3 most important questions regarding price action in DXY . And which we should keep in mind - and let it be answered daily in the form of the price action, to learn may be day by day (not) something new.


107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual Year High 2023
106.648 : 2024/11/21 - last price action
106.517 : 2024/04/16 - Annual Year High 2024
106.490 : 2024/05/01 - 1st False Breakout To New High
106,130 : 2024/06/26 - 2nd False Breakout To New High
104.799 : 2024/07/30 - High Before W Trend Reversal Formation
In addition to the annual highs in 2023 and 2024, and/or even the 3-wave breakout from the w trend reversal formation, two downward trend lines from the annual high in 2024 are also interesting - the existence of which I don't want to withhold from you. Because the price action above proves the fundamentally positive bullish upward trend in the DXY . While a cushioning around the two downward trend lines from the bears, between 106.5 and/or even 106 points, in retrospect we would have to speak of a short-term false breakout of new annual highs in 2024.

107.064 : 2024/11/14 - Last New Annual High 2024
107.015 : 2024/11/14 - Thursday High, Last Week
106.918 : 2024/11/20 - Wednesdays High, This Week
106.903 : 2024/11/15 - Fridays High, Last Week
106.813 : 2024/11/18 - Mondays High, This Week
106.648 : 2024/11/21 - last price action
106.632 : 2024/11/19 - Tuesdays High, This Week
Since last Thursday, when we experienced a new annual high for 2024 on the DXY - after 7 calendar weeks (with an annual low for 2024) - traders and/or investors have traded a lower daily high on each subsequent day. Until yesterday. Which then also meant that we broke the short-term downward trend upwards. Is this a short-term false breakout? Or is it heading towards a new annual high in 2024? It's not far! But an attack by the bears, which sends the price action back into the territory of the short-term downward trend channel, cannot be ruled out. No - to be honest, even more likely, for today, on Thursday, and or tomorrow too! Why? Take a look at the price action (1h) of the last few hours. And you can see that in the last 5 trading hours, the price action repeatedly failed to break through upward resistance at more or less 106.745 points. The price action is currently at 106.648 points. So there is still hope for bulls that the price action of the DXY can develop upwards this week to a new annual high in 2024. But that's not a must - next week you will still be able to trade and/or invest in the DXY .


With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron



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