My current bias for the dollar is very much bearish, as price has broken structure to the downside once again. While I don’t trade the dollar directly, I use it as a confluence to confirm trade ideas for other pairs like GBP/USD (GU) and EUR/USD (EU). Since I’m looking to short both pairs right now, this bearish outlook on the dollar makes sense.
In scenario (B), I can see the price heading to the 9-hour demand zone, where it might accumulate and then shoot back up to the next supply zone. With the recent break of structure (BOS), a nicely formed 4-hour demand zone is also in play.
Since price is currently in a supply zone, I’ll stick with this bias until the dollar "shows its hand." However, if the dollar slows down and begins to accumulate on Monday, we might see some promising opportunities this week.
Given that this is a counter-trend trade, I’ll be cautious, aiming for high risk-reward ratios while keeping an eye on the nearest demand zone for entries.
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