🔍 Technical Observations
On the H4 timeframe, the Head and Shoulders pattern on DXY has completed, signaling a potential strong reversal.
Recent Decline: DXY has dropped sharply to the nearest Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone at 107.2xx - 107.5xx, where price reacted significantly.
Correlation with Gold: Gold returned to its all-time high zone last week and reacted with a pullback of nearly 20 points, demonstrating the inverse relationship between the two assets.
📊 Technical Analysis
DXY:
Support at FVG Zone: Following a sharp rally fueled by FOMO over Trump’s election victory, DXY reached a high liquidity void and has since reversed.
Head and Shoulders Pattern: The failure to break the nearest resistance level on H4 triggered a significant sell-off.
Gold:
Correction After Rally: Gold appears to have completed its bullish wave at a critical resistance zone, indicating a potential start of a corrective phase.
💡 Key Factors Impacting DXY
Monetary Policy:
Decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on interest rates continue to have a major influence on DXY.
If the Fed signals a dovish stance, further pressure on DXY is expected.
Economic Data:
Indicators such as unemployment rates, GDP growth, and inflation will shape investor expectations for USD strength.
Weak data may contribute to a downward trend in DXY.
Political Climate:
Trump’s election victory initially created FOMO-driven momentum. However, upcoming trade and fiscal policies could significantly shift the market direction.
🔮 Outlook for the Coming Week
Based on recent developments:
Technical Trends: DXY remains in a corrective downtrend, with further downside likely unless key resistance levels on H4 are breached.
Market Sentiment:
Weak economic data or dovish Fed signals may add downward pressure.
Positive surprises from economic or political factors could lead to a swift reversal.
📢 Share Your Thoughts!
How do you think DXY and gold will perform in the coming week?
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