ES Futures (SPX) - Analyses, Key-Zones, Setups - Thu, Sep 26

News & catalysts (ET)

8:30 — PCE & Core PCE (Aug), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Market focus is on Core PCE ~2.9% YoY and ~0.2% MoM consensus.
10:00 — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final Sep). Scheduled time confirmed by
Fed speakers: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman in a 10:00 discussion;
Fed Board’s Beth Anne Wilson remarks at 8:45 at a New York Fed conference.
Earnings/overnight tone: Costco (COST) reported FY Q4 results Thu after close; headlines can sway retail/consumer sentiment pre-open. Nike (NKE) is due Tue 9/30 after close (next week).

Bias:

Base case: Two-way trade into 8:30, directional break afterward.
If Core PCE ≤ 0.2% MoM or ≤ 2.8% YoY: risk-on; favor upside continuation through near-term supply toward 6700+.
If Core PCE ≥ 0.3% MoM or ≥ 3.0% YoY: risk-off; favor sell-the-rips into 6630 → 6605 ladder.
Secondary input 10:00: Michigan Sentiment can add a second impulse; weak sentiment keeps rallies fragile.

PA roadmap

Overnight: Expect balance inside 6655–6675 until 8:30. Liquidity likely pools above 6675 and below 6650 for the data sweep.
NY AM (09:30–11:00): Trade the post-8:30 acceptance: continuation if 15m structure accepts beyond a zone; fade if we get swift rejection back inside.
NY PM (13:30–16:00): Look for consolidation breaks toward untested AM extremes; avoid initiating inside mid-range chop.

Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)
A++ Acceptance Long (major)

Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6670–6675, followed by 5m pullback that re-closes above.
Entry: 1m HL after the 5m re-close.
SL: Below the 15m trigger wick −0.25–0.50 pts.
TPs: TP1 6705, TP2 6725, TP3 6760–6765.
Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits.
Invalidation: 15m body back inside 6670 (acceptance lost).

A++ Acceptance Short (major)

Trigger: 15m full-body close below 6655, then 5m pullback that fails and re-closes below.
Entry: 1m LH after the 5m re-close.
SL: Above the 15m trigger wick +0.25–0.50 pts.
TPs: TP1 6631–6635, TP2 6605–6608, TP3 6580–6585.
Management: Same as above.
Invalidation: 15m body back above 6658.