Outlook for the Next Few Months
• Now–August OpEx: -2.5% to -5% slow correction
• August–September OpEx: potential 5–7.5% additional decline
• By late Q3: cumulative 10–12.5% drawdown (target S&P ~5700).
• October: possible bounce — or acceleration if data worsens
• End of Year: risk of deep drop à la Oct–Dec 2018 if trends continue
Macro Backdrop
• Watch for margin compression, CPI surprise, and unemployment uptick
• Private data shows more fragility than government numbers
• QRA-driven liquidity tightening may amplify downside risk
Political Timing and Fed Policy
• Administration may welcome controlled decline to enable early 2026 rate cuts
• If market doesn’t decline soon, blow-off top/melt-up into midterms possible
• Now–August OpEx: -2.5% to -5% slow correction
• August–September OpEx: potential 5–7.5% additional decline
• By late Q3: cumulative 10–12.5% drawdown (target S&P ~5700).
• October: possible bounce — or acceleration if data worsens
• End of Year: risk of deep drop à la Oct–Dec 2018 if trends continue
Macro Backdrop
• Watch for margin compression, CPI surprise, and unemployment uptick
• Private data shows more fragility than government numbers
• QRA-driven liquidity tightening may amplify downside risk
Political Timing and Fed Policy
• Administration may welcome controlled decline to enable early 2026 rate cuts
• If market doesn’t decline soon, blow-off top/melt-up into midterms possible
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.