Bias: BUY DIPS into 6653–6643. Continuation long on 15m acceptance ≥ 6722–6726 with a 5m hold. Counter-trend short only on a clean 15m rejection at 6722–6726 (2.0R gate).
Why bullish bias (even with short fade allowed)
So, here’s why I’m leaning bullish (but I’m cool with a short fade now and then):
First off, when you check out the higher time frame (HTF), the trend is up. It’s usually a better bet to buy when prices dip rather than trying to call the top.
Then there's the risk situation: if we look at support around 6638–6643 and resistance levels at 6678/6700, we can set up for a nice 2R–3R trade with tight stops based on the 15-minute chart.
As for shorts, we’re going against the trend here. The only reason to short would be if we hit major resistance around 6722–6726. But if we don’t see a proper rejection, I’m not going to push it—I’ll just stick to going long.
Setups:
Long — Dip Buy (primary)
• Zone: 6653–6658 (Support-Initial) → 6638–6643 (Support-Next).
• Trigger: 15m reclaims support (body back above) → 5m re-close up with HL → 1m HL entry.
• SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50.
• TPs: 6678–6683 → 6700–6706 (then trail only after TP2).
Tomorrow’s key U.S. events (ET)
• Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales — 8:30 (consumer pulse; can move index futures).
• Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization — 9:15.
• NAHB Housing Market Index — 10:00.
• Import/Export Price Indexes — 8:30.
• Treasury bill auctions (4- & 8-week; supply headline).
• FOMC (two-day) begins Tue; decision & SEP/dot plot Wed.
• Monthlies/OPEX: Fri Sep 19 (flows can affect tape later in week).
Long — Acceptance Continuation (secondary)
• Flip condition: 15m full-body ≥ 6722–6726 and 5m holds ≥ 6720–6722.
• Entry: 6721–6723 HL retest.
• SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50.
• TPs: 6760–6765 → 6804–6808.
Short — Rejection Fade (counter-trend, extremes only)
• Zone: Resistance — Major 6722–6726 (or 6700–6706 if Major remains untagged).
• Trigger: 15m sweep & body back inside → 5m LH re-close → 1m fail/reclaim sell.
• SL: 15m sweep-high +0.50.
• TPs: 6678–6683 → 6653–6658 → 6638–6643.
Why bullish bias (even with short fade allowed)
So, here’s why I’m leaning bullish (but I’m cool with a short fade now and then):
First off, when you check out the higher time frame (HTF), the trend is up. It’s usually a better bet to buy when prices dip rather than trying to call the top.
Then there's the risk situation: if we look at support around 6638–6643 and resistance levels at 6678/6700, we can set up for a nice 2R–3R trade with tight stops based on the 15-minute chart.
As for shorts, we’re going against the trend here. The only reason to short would be if we hit major resistance around 6722–6726. But if we don’t see a proper rejection, I’m not going to push it—I’ll just stick to going long.
Setups:
Long — Dip Buy (primary)
• Zone: 6653–6658 (Support-Initial) → 6638–6643 (Support-Next).
• Trigger: 15m reclaims support (body back above) → 5m re-close up with HL → 1m HL entry.
• SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50.
• TPs: 6678–6683 → 6700–6706 (then trail only after TP2).
Tomorrow’s key U.S. events (ET)
• Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales — 8:30 (consumer pulse; can move index futures).
• Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization — 9:15.
• NAHB Housing Market Index — 10:00.
• Import/Export Price Indexes — 8:30.
• Treasury bill auctions (4- & 8-week; supply headline).
• FOMC (two-day) begins Tue; decision & SEP/dot plot Wed.
• Monthlies/OPEX: Fri Sep 19 (flows can affect tape later in week).
Long — Acceptance Continuation (secondary)
• Flip condition: 15m full-body ≥ 6722–6726 and 5m holds ≥ 6720–6722.
• Entry: 6721–6723 HL retest.
• SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50.
• TPs: 6760–6765 → 6804–6808.
Short — Rejection Fade (counter-trend, extremes only)
• Zone: Resistance — Major 6722–6726 (or 6700–6706 if Major remains untagged).
• Trigger: 15m sweep & body back inside → 5m LH re-close → 1m fail/reclaim sell.
• SL: 15m sweep-high +0.50.
• TPs: 6678–6683 → 6653–6658 → 6638–6643.
If you want to contact me here is my Discord channel discord.gg/wPHfYgv892
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
If you want to contact me here is my Discord channel discord.gg/wPHfYgv892
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.