June 28 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Gap Above 78.6% Retracement; 100% Projection And VWAP Anchored From 3/23 At $2,850; Balance Below $2,975.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices resolved a week-long balance area to the downside, albeit under weak selling. The S&P 500 managed to one time frame lower, as evidenced by the lower highs and lows, and closed the week off below its month-to-date and week-to-date volume weighted average price benchmarks.
Recapping last week’s action, Monday’s session closed higher without any involvement from stronger buyers. During the overnight session, before Tuesday’s regular trading, news regarding U.S. and China trade relations roiled markets. Later, statements regarding the relations were retracted, and markets retraced more than 100% of their move down. After the overnight news-driven shakeout, the market failed to get any real traction during regular trading.
On Wednesday, markets liquidated on news regarding a contraction in global economic growth, later accepting prices and closing near the lows. The rotations lower were mechanical, indicative of short-term trading money.
Thursday’s activity, on the other hand, was mostly responsive, with end-of-day economic news helping fuel a spike that erased some of Wednesday’s selling. In the evening session, alongside Federal Reserve balance sheet news, markets returned to prior day value, rejecting the end-of-day spike. After the noisy overnight, markets opened Friday, liquidated, and closed near the lows.
Overall, despite the market losing ground, the selling was not all too intense as evidenced by the mechanical rotations and weak migration of value. Every time the market attempted to go higher, or lower, it lacked conviction, and would often lose steam into the close.
Adding, the presence of an overwhelming number of traders on social media salivating at the notion the market may experience another crash is a huge red flag and may point to the incompletion of a longer-term uptrend. Important to note is the relative strength of growth versus the weakness of the energy and financial sectors. That said, though the immediate near-term trend is lower, higher prices could come just as easily on some good news. For a healthy continuation, sellers need to step up and transact in higher volumes at lower prices.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
Home Sales; Consumer Confidence; ADP Employment; Construction Spending; Nonfarm Payrolls; Initial Claims; Trade Deficit.
Fundamental:
IMF lowers global growth projections for 2020. bit.ly/2BKvI0K
Bayer AG (OTC: BAYRY) to pay over $10B to settle weedkiller claims. bit.ly/2BKvI0K
BAYRY
Users are fed up with Facebook, Inc (NASDAQ: FB). bit.ly/2BKvI0K
META
Russia to ramp up oil production after pandemic recovery. reut.rs/387bIkW
Russian rate cut to ease pressure on bank margins. bit.ly/2A8bE83
B3’s pact with CME Group, Inc (NASDAQ: CME) is credit positive. bit.ly/2A8bE83
CME
Credit implications of one-off debt increases mitigated by debt affordability, low rates. bit.ly/2A8bE83
One opinion suggests the Fed is not the cause of the recent broad market rally. bit.ly/2Aa2sQB
Twitter, Inc (NYSE: TWTR) user surge may be permanent. bit.ly/3eD5kog
TWTR
Top 100 companies prosering amidst the pandemic. on.ft.com/3eHOx3h
Four factors that could weigh on recovery, spark a depression. bit.ly/3g7grG2
Bond market looks to a tech-centric future for increased efficiency. reut.rs/3dzkU2M
43% of firms that received PPP could be out of cash in a month or less. bit.ly/3i5Pkgt
65% of the general population over the age of 18 wouldn’t mind returning to lockdown. bit.ly/3ifnvCL
73% of economists expect economic drop to be followed by a quick recovery. bit.ly/3ifnvCL
T-Mobile U.S., Inc (NASDAQ: TMUS) shares priced at $103 amid SoftBank sale.
TMUS
U.S. targets $3.1B of EU and U.K. imports for new tariffs. bloom.bg/2ZdK3uF
Chinese imports of U.S. goods rise, while investment into China continues. reut.rs/3g5rn78
Tesla, Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) signs long-term supply deal over cobalt. reut.rs/3dFunW8
TSLA
Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS.A) plans climate-driven restructuring. reut.rs/2BjJzeu NYSE:RDS.A NYSE:RDS.B
9 companies in Phase 1 of COVID-19 clinical trials, while two are in Phase 2. bit.ly/3882Z2f
Realtor.com data shows views per property in suburban zip codes grew by 13%. bit.ly/2NyDiOy
IYR
Ackman seeks $3B raise for largest-ever blank-check company. reut.rs/385Ck69
Industrial power demand in China rises above 2019 levels for the first time. bloom.bg/2COmOQv
1-in-6 young people have stopped working since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. bit.ly/2B76udd
Carnival Corp (NYSE: CCL) CEO remains invested despite the uncertainty. bit.ly/2VoXrLD
CCL
Americans increase deposits as banks cut back on lending. bit.ly/2ZgmsJR
Restructuring supportive of Deutsche Bank AG’s (NYSE: DB) asset performance. bit.ly/2BHfl5g
DB
Greek banks increase problem-loan outsourcing to credit servicers, a credit positive. bit.ly/2BHfl5g
Startup ecosystems rated by performance, funding, connectivity, talent, and knowledge. bit.ly/2CGX1cM
Should you be inclined to sell the rally? bit.ly/3i6fiAx
Amazon.com, Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) to acquire self-driving car startup Zoox. bit.ly/3i6fcZH
AMZN
German court orders Facebook, Inc (NASDAQ: FB) to stop data sharing. bit.ly/386ZxEL
META
Amazon.com, Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) to take 16% stake in U.K. food delivery firm. cnb.cx/2YE2VnN
AMZN
Companies get caught up in the reparations debate. bit.ly/31omOkg
BlackRock, Inc (NYSE: BLK) slashes fees for its largest ETF. on.wsj.com/2NCJ81r
BLK
SPY
American Airlines Group, Inc (NASDAQ: AAL) warns flights may be crowded in July. reut.rs/2B8k0gJ
AAL
Verizon Communications, Inc (NYSE: VZ) pulls ads from Facebook and Instagram. bit.ly/2YCarze
VZ
Unprecedented aging of U.S. population to rein in growth, inflation, and interest rates. bit.ly/31n4SGP
Credit card industry reins in balance-transfer offers as banks fear defaults. cnb.cx/3ibdvdm
ETF trading affects underlying stocks a lot less than expected. bit.ly/31umAbg
Sentiment: 24.1% Bullish, 27.0% Neutral, 49.9% Bearish as of 6/27/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 626,711,354 as of 6/27/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 45.8% as of 6/27/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY
SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ
NDQ
Russell 2000 (RTY):
IWM
RUT
Gold (GC):
GLD
Crude Oil (CL):
USO
USL
DBO
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Gap Above 78.6% Retracement; 100% Projection And VWAP Anchored From 3/23 At $2,850; Balance Below $2,975.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices resolved a week-long balance area to the downside, albeit under weak selling. The S&P 500 managed to one time frame lower, as evidenced by the lower highs and lows, and closed the week off below its month-to-date and week-to-date volume weighted average price benchmarks.
Recapping last week’s action, Monday’s session closed higher without any involvement from stronger buyers. During the overnight session, before Tuesday’s regular trading, news regarding U.S. and China trade relations roiled markets. Later, statements regarding the relations were retracted, and markets retraced more than 100% of their move down. After the overnight news-driven shakeout, the market failed to get any real traction during regular trading.
On Wednesday, markets liquidated on news regarding a contraction in global economic growth, later accepting prices and closing near the lows. The rotations lower were mechanical, indicative of short-term trading money.
Thursday’s activity, on the other hand, was mostly responsive, with end-of-day economic news helping fuel a spike that erased some of Wednesday’s selling. In the evening session, alongside Federal Reserve balance sheet news, markets returned to prior day value, rejecting the end-of-day spike. After the noisy overnight, markets opened Friday, liquidated, and closed near the lows.
Overall, despite the market losing ground, the selling was not all too intense as evidenced by the mechanical rotations and weak migration of value. Every time the market attempted to go higher, or lower, it lacked conviction, and would often lose steam into the close.
Adding, the presence of an overwhelming number of traders on social media salivating at the notion the market may experience another crash is a huge red flag and may point to the incompletion of a longer-term uptrend. Important to note is the relative strength of growth versus the weakness of the energy and financial sectors. That said, though the immediate near-term trend is lower, higher prices could come just as easily on some good news. For a healthy continuation, sellers need to step up and transact in higher volumes at lower prices.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
Home Sales; Consumer Confidence; ADP Employment; Construction Spending; Nonfarm Payrolls; Initial Claims; Trade Deficit.
Fundamental:
IMF lowers global growth projections for 2020. bit.ly/2BKvI0K
Bayer AG (OTC: BAYRY) to pay over $10B to settle weedkiller claims. bit.ly/2BKvI0K
BAYRY
Users are fed up with Facebook, Inc (NASDAQ: FB). bit.ly/2BKvI0K
META
Russia to ramp up oil production after pandemic recovery. reut.rs/387bIkW
Russian rate cut to ease pressure on bank margins. bit.ly/2A8bE83
B3’s pact with CME Group, Inc (NASDAQ: CME) is credit positive. bit.ly/2A8bE83
CME
Credit implications of one-off debt increases mitigated by debt affordability, low rates. bit.ly/2A8bE83
One opinion suggests the Fed is not the cause of the recent broad market rally. bit.ly/2Aa2sQB
Twitter, Inc (NYSE: TWTR) user surge may be permanent. bit.ly/3eD5kog
TWTR
Top 100 companies prosering amidst the pandemic. on.ft.com/3eHOx3h
Four factors that could weigh on recovery, spark a depression. bit.ly/3g7grG2
Bond market looks to a tech-centric future for increased efficiency. reut.rs/3dzkU2M
43% of firms that received PPP could be out of cash in a month or less. bit.ly/3i5Pkgt
65% of the general population over the age of 18 wouldn’t mind returning to lockdown. bit.ly/3ifnvCL
73% of economists expect economic drop to be followed by a quick recovery. bit.ly/3ifnvCL
T-Mobile U.S., Inc (NASDAQ: TMUS) shares priced at $103 amid SoftBank sale.
TMUS
U.S. targets $3.1B of EU and U.K. imports for new tariffs. bloom.bg/2ZdK3uF
Chinese imports of U.S. goods rise, while investment into China continues. reut.rs/3g5rn78
Tesla, Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) signs long-term supply deal over cobalt. reut.rs/3dFunW8
TSLA
Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS.A) plans climate-driven restructuring. reut.rs/2BjJzeu NYSE:RDS.A NYSE:RDS.B
9 companies in Phase 1 of COVID-19 clinical trials, while two are in Phase 2. bit.ly/3882Z2f
Realtor.com data shows views per property in suburban zip codes grew by 13%. bit.ly/2NyDiOy
IYR
Ackman seeks $3B raise for largest-ever blank-check company. reut.rs/385Ck69
Industrial power demand in China rises above 2019 levels for the first time. bloom.bg/2COmOQv
1-in-6 young people have stopped working since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. bit.ly/2B76udd
Carnival Corp (NYSE: CCL) CEO remains invested despite the uncertainty. bit.ly/2VoXrLD
CCL
Americans increase deposits as banks cut back on lending. bit.ly/2ZgmsJR
Restructuring supportive of Deutsche Bank AG’s (NYSE: DB) asset performance. bit.ly/2BHfl5g
DB
Greek banks increase problem-loan outsourcing to credit servicers, a credit positive. bit.ly/2BHfl5g
Startup ecosystems rated by performance, funding, connectivity, talent, and knowledge. bit.ly/2CGX1cM
Should you be inclined to sell the rally? bit.ly/3i6fiAx
Amazon.com, Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) to acquire self-driving car startup Zoox. bit.ly/3i6fcZH
AMZN
German court orders Facebook, Inc (NASDAQ: FB) to stop data sharing. bit.ly/386ZxEL
META
Amazon.com, Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) to take 16% stake in U.K. food delivery firm. cnb.cx/2YE2VnN
AMZN
Companies get caught up in the reparations debate. bit.ly/31omOkg
BlackRock, Inc (NYSE: BLK) slashes fees for its largest ETF. on.wsj.com/2NCJ81r
BLK
SPY
American Airlines Group, Inc (NASDAQ: AAL) warns flights may be crowded in July. reut.rs/2B8k0gJ
AAL
Verizon Communications, Inc (NYSE: VZ) pulls ads from Facebook and Instagram. bit.ly/2YCarze
VZ
Unprecedented aging of U.S. population to rein in growth, inflation, and interest rates. bit.ly/31n4SGP
Credit card industry reins in balance-transfer offers as banks fear defaults. cnb.cx/3ibdvdm
ETF trading affects underlying stocks a lot less than expected. bit.ly/31umAbg
Sentiment: 24.1% Bullish, 27.0% Neutral, 49.9% Bearish as of 6/27/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 626,711,354 as of 6/27/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 45.8% as of 6/27/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY
SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ
NDQ
Russell 2000 (RTY):
IWM
RUT
Gold (GC):
GLD
Crude Oil (CL):
USO
USL
DBO
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
