ETHUSD in a Massive Descending Triangle (Kitchen Sink Post)
Here we have Ethereum on the log chart and as the trend line and hammers show this is the third time previous support has flipped to resistance and so at the very least some sort of down trend is to be expected.
The EMAs being used are the 13 and the 48. ETFHQ.com did a competition on the best golden crosses one could look for and found across all asset classes and markets that the weekly timeframe, with EMAs, and with those settings work the best. Since they did that before crypto was a thing I generally use those settings on the daily or sometimes the three day. Price action has been pinched between those EMAs for almost a month now, with the exception being the breakout at the golden hammer.
The Nine Seasons Rainbow has just flickered bearish on the lowest timeframe and is signalling weak bull markets on most other timeframes. This isn't enough by itself to signal a trade, but it is a few more grains of rice on the scales that this will resolve bearishly
The volatility stop has been adjusted to only show the short stops to help clean up a chart that may get otherwise cluttered.
Forgive the awkwardness of this chart but I plan on taking profits on the arithmetic chart and so it is hard to see what is going on with all the price action while focusing on this wonky trendline. It started as me extending to the right the golden trendline from between the arrows but then I thought about extending it left and that is what I got. I don't know if the line will still be valid, but I will be watching it. Further that, the MACD does appear to be rolling over in a normal matter on this weekly chart.
The chart below is probably one of my most noisy but I have been using it for years so I can tell whats going on rather well.
Clouds
The price action at the top edge of the standard Ichi moku cloud. Awful place to look for support.
The crypto cloud is looking a little to thick for it to transverse now.
Price is currently on the cryptocloud Tenkan and the kijun is at $190 and would be a logical consolidation before the next leg down.
VPVR
Chart is set to the beginning of the last bull run
The price action looks like it should be going edge to edge on the value areas at least.
Point of Control at $130 is another potential consolidation area.
If we slip the Lower Value Area the next stopping place would be around $45.
OBV EMAS
Hidden bearish divergence
OBV has slipped the 10 EMA and is not testing it as resistance
If I am right the OBV will go to the 100 EMA or below.
Money Flow Index (Price adjusted RSI)
Continuing to tighten and poised to at least test support again. If I am right this almost three year tightening pattern will break to the downside.
The month chart with the OBV EMAs and MFI still looks real bad. Lots of hidden bearish divergence and that tight red candle last month makes it look like price action will be rolling over. We might see a an evening star pattern.
This next part is experimental stuff for me. I have been playing with the Volatility stop on various timeframes and so far I like finding pinches between the main chart setting and then 2x. So the chart below has VSTOP for the current time frame as dots and the 2w VSTOP as lines. The 2W VSTOP really does appear to be asserting itself as resistance and so we would be using the stop as an entry. One thing is clear: If you use the 2x stops as stop losses when this is trailing sideways you would lose a lot of money.
Conclusion
This is a lot to go over and the picture is pretty grim. One thing you won't see from me is a post saying the exact opposite where I enthusiastically go over the bullish scenario. If I had a bullish scenario that was even half as strong as by bearish scenario I would not be posting all of this mess. Price action should be going to at least triangle support at around $85. Everything after that is even more validation of the everything bubble I think we are in.
The EMAs being used are the 13 and the 48. ETFHQ.com did a competition on the best golden crosses one could look for and found across all asset classes and markets that the weekly timeframe, with EMAs, and with those settings work the best. Since they did that before crypto was a thing I generally use those settings on the daily or sometimes the three day. Price action has been pinched between those EMAs for almost a month now, with the exception being the breakout at the golden hammer.
The Nine Seasons Rainbow has just flickered bearish on the lowest timeframe and is signalling weak bull markets on most other timeframes. This isn't enough by itself to signal a trade, but it is a few more grains of rice on the scales that this will resolve bearishly
The volatility stop has been adjusted to only show the short stops to help clean up a chart that may get otherwise cluttered.
Forgive the awkwardness of this chart but I plan on taking profits on the arithmetic chart and so it is hard to see what is going on with all the price action while focusing on this wonky trendline. It started as me extending to the right the golden trendline from between the arrows but then I thought about extending it left and that is what I got. I don't know if the line will still be valid, but I will be watching it. Further that, the MACD does appear to be rolling over in a normal matter on this weekly chart.
The chart below is probably one of my most noisy but I have been using it for years so I can tell whats going on rather well.
Clouds
The price action at the top edge of the standard Ichi moku cloud. Awful place to look for support.
The crypto cloud is looking a little to thick for it to transverse now.
Price is currently on the cryptocloud Tenkan and the kijun is at $190 and would be a logical consolidation before the next leg down.
VPVR
Chart is set to the beginning of the last bull run
The price action looks like it should be going edge to edge on the value areas at least.
Point of Control at $130 is another potential consolidation area.
If we slip the Lower Value Area the next stopping place would be around $45.
OBV EMAS
Hidden bearish divergence
OBV has slipped the 10 EMA and is not testing it as resistance
If I am right the OBV will go to the 100 EMA or below.
Money Flow Index (Price adjusted RSI)
Continuing to tighten and poised to at least test support again. If I am right this almost three year tightening pattern will break to the downside.
The month chart with the OBV EMAs and MFI still looks real bad. Lots of hidden bearish divergence and that tight red candle last month makes it look like price action will be rolling over. We might see a an evening star pattern.
This next part is experimental stuff for me. I have been playing with the Volatility stop on various timeframes and so far I like finding pinches between the main chart setting and then 2x. So the chart below has VSTOP for the current time frame as dots and the 2w VSTOP as lines. The 2W VSTOP really does appear to be asserting itself as resistance and so we would be using the stop as an entry. One thing is clear: If you use the 2x stops as stop losses when this is trailing sideways you would lose a lot of money.
Conclusion
This is a lot to go over and the picture is pretty grim. One thing you won't see from me is a post saying the exact opposite where I enthusiastically go over the bullish scenario. If I had a bullish scenario that was even half as strong as by bearish scenario I would not be posting all of this mess. Price action should be going to at least triangle support at around $85. Everything after that is even more validation of the everything bubble I think we are in.
Comment:
Looks like todays pump is setting up a descending triangle top. We have some divergence on the RSI. This is a $40 triangle but they perform poorly so we will see how powerful the initial move is. Final Target is still the same, just getting an idea of how price action could proceed lower.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion
