Whipsaw through 1.10, anyone?

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (intersects with a long-term trendline resistance ) and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.

April spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal. May, as you can see, is recovering off worst levels, on track to form another Japanese hammer candlestick pattern out of current demand.

With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.

Daily timeframe:

Against the US dollar , the euro came out swinging Tuesday, chucking light on the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1010 as a feasible resistance today.

Although the pair could pause for breath at 1.1010, journeying through here positions supply at 1.1239/1.1179 in the firing range, stationed just under another area of supply at 1.1323/1.1268. A rejection from 1.1010, on the other hand, may position trendline support (1.0635) in sight.

H4 timeframe:

EUR/USD exhibited a one-sided display Tuesday, gathering traction ahead of a 50.00% ret level support at 1.0890 as the US dollar index glided through 99.00.

Recognised supply from 1.1057/1.1013, an area capping upside since late March, is now within walking distance. Interestingly, the 200-day simple moving average on the daily timeframe sits just under the aforesaid supply.

H1 timeframe:

Heading into US trade on Tuesday, intraday action saw momentum slightly tail off on approach to the widely watched round number 1.10. Indicator-based traders will also note the RSI oscillator is producing bearish divergence out of overbought territory.

Technically, this is a sign sellers may be gathering strength. A drop from current price could take the pair to demand at 1.0914/1.0930, a base joining closely with a 100-period simple moving average .

Above 1.10, nonetheless, traders face supply at 1.1033/1.1016.

Structures of Interest:

Monthly price displays scope to cross into higher ground out of demand at 1.0488/1.0912, potentially giving legs to daily price to conquer the 200-day simple moving average .

The lower timeframes illustrate the possibility of a whipsaw forming through 1.10. Running buy-stops above this number into H1 supply at 1.1033/1.1016, an area sat inside H4 supply from 1.1057/1.1013, may spark an intraday sell-off. Ultimately, a H1 close back beneath 1.10 adds weight to bearish themes.


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