A move above Monday’s high needed to forecast a year-end rally

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
The single currency is in free fall mode again, trading below 1.1400 and 20MA as well, as the dollar strengthens across the board. On Monday session, EURCHF is the biggest loser among EUR/XXX flipside EURGBP leads with 0.95%. Although Friday’s strong move post disappointed NFP data, the euro failed to handle 50MA.
Slowing economic growth and trade-war concerns are the main factors keeping investors unplayable into the year-end. Besides, the dollar dominion against the EUR continues, and the recent CFTC positioning data proves the same. “As of the week of December 4, investors increased their net short position in the US dollar to US$29.7 billion, the largest since the end of December 2016, compared to US$29.53 billion in the previous week”-CFTC.

Ahead of the event full week (Macroeconomic perspective) we expect the risk associated with the EUR is to the downside. Into the end-quarter ECB meeting, the initial setup leans to the first support level finds at 1.1300 below here, 1.1260 and 1.1200 exists. The flip side, the first level to watch is Monday’s high 1.1440. Getting through here could strengthen the bulls to aim further at 1.1500 levels.

Interestingly the daily indicators are remaining bullish; a symmetrical triangle formation is still evident on the daily chart

A move above Monday’s high needed to forecast a year-end rally.


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