Forecast of Gold and Analysis for future target dates.
Gold is Currently trading at 1711 levels on 2nd Sept 2022 with a Bullish candle reversal
What we have here is a typical formation of Elliot waves in which 5 waves are already completed and we are in process of formation of corrective ABC pattern in which wave B is likely appearing to be in completed.
So, from here we are targeting the formation of Wave C and by analysis we will find the time and price level where the Wave C is likely to be completed.
The Downward Elliot wave started on 18th March 2022 with a Daily High at 2070.42
The 5th wave completed on 21st July 2022 with a Daily Low at 1681.
Some Technical Indicators and workings are as follows.
1) When we plot Fibonacci levels for price retracement, we get the following price levels
0.382 = 1829.76
0.500 = 1875.71
0.618 = 1921.66
0.786 = 1987.08
2) To narrow down the above price retracement zone for making probable price targets for retracement, we can project an Alternate price projections (APP) in which we measure the length of Wave A and plot the Fibonacci levels from Wave B. We get the following price levels.
1.00 = 1815.84
1.618 = 1894.28
3) We can use 1 more additional calculation of External Fib levels to narrow down the further probable price targets.
We will measure the Wave A and plot External retracement levels.
1.272 = 1840.30
1.618 = 1881.48
2.618 = 2000.50
We can draw the workings calculated in 1) and 2) and 3) as follows.
Price retracement <------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->
1829.76 1875.71 1921.66 1987.08
APP <-------------------------------------------------------------------->
1815.84 1894.28
External Retracement <------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------>
1840.30 1881.48 2000.50
From the Diagram it appears that the high probability of Price retracement at
a) 1829 - 1840 levels
b) 1875 - 1894 levels
The price levels mentioned in a) and b) above include Fib levels from each 3 workings above and appears to be the most probable price target for retracement.
Since, we have calculated the price retracement zones, likewise we can calculate the future time zones in which the retracement is likely to take.
5) When we plot the Trend based Fib time line from 8th Mar to 21st July, a correction time range appears on following dates.
0.382 = 12th Sept 2022
0.618 = 13th Oct 2022
Red lines plotted on the chart.
6) Just like Alternate price projections calculated in 2) above, we can make alternate Fib time projection ( ATP ) from corrective pattern of Wave 5 to Wave A, we can have 3 different ATP date projections.
0.618 = 14th Sept 2022
1.000 = 21st Sept 2022
1.618 = 4th Oct 2022
Purple lines plotted on the chart
7) We can calculate a cycle of Low to High bars based on past cycles.
a) Wave 1 to Wave 2 (23 bars)(33 days) - Corrective waves
b) Wave 3 to Wave 4 (20 bars)(28 days) - Corrective waves
c) Wave 5 to Wave A (14 bars)(20 days) - Motive wave
As per the Low to High cycle analysis, there is a high probability that Wave C will form between 20 days to 33 days, i.e.,
a) 21st Sept 2022 or
b) 4th Oct 2022
We can draw the workings calculated in 5) and 6) and 7) as follows.
Time retracement <---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->
12th Sept 13 Oct
ATP <-------------------------------------------------------------------------->
14th Sept 21st Sept 4th Oct
Low to High Cycle <------------------------------------------->
21 Sept 4th Oct
From the Diagram it appears that the high probability of Time retracement is 21 Sept or 4th Oct.
Lets see how it transpires in future.
Gold is Currently trading at 1711 levels on 2nd Sept 2022 with a Bullish candle reversal
What we have here is a typical formation of Elliot waves in which 5 waves are already completed and we are in process of formation of corrective ABC pattern in which wave B is likely appearing to be in completed.
So, from here we are targeting the formation of Wave C and by analysis we will find the time and price level where the Wave C is likely to be completed.
The Downward Elliot wave started on 18th March 2022 with a Daily High at 2070.42
The 5th wave completed on 21st July 2022 with a Daily Low at 1681.
Some Technical Indicators and workings are as follows.
1) When we plot Fibonacci levels for price retracement, we get the following price levels
0.382 = 1829.76
0.500 = 1875.71
0.618 = 1921.66
0.786 = 1987.08
2) To narrow down the above price retracement zone for making probable price targets for retracement, we can project an Alternate price projections (APP) in which we measure the length of Wave A and plot the Fibonacci levels from Wave B. We get the following price levels.
1.00 = 1815.84
1.618 = 1894.28
3) We can use 1 more additional calculation of External Fib levels to narrow down the further probable price targets.
We will measure the Wave A and plot External retracement levels.
1.272 = 1840.30
1.618 = 1881.48
2.618 = 2000.50
We can draw the workings calculated in 1) and 2) and 3) as follows.
Price retracement <------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->
1829.76 1875.71 1921.66 1987.08
APP <-------------------------------------------------------------------->
1815.84 1894.28
External Retracement <------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------>
1840.30 1881.48 2000.50
From the Diagram it appears that the high probability of Price retracement at
a) 1829 - 1840 levels
b) 1875 - 1894 levels
The price levels mentioned in a) and b) above include Fib levels from each 3 workings above and appears to be the most probable price target for retracement.
Since, we have calculated the price retracement zones, likewise we can calculate the future time zones in which the retracement is likely to take.
5) When we plot the Trend based Fib time line from 8th Mar to 21st July, a correction time range appears on following dates.
0.382 = 12th Sept 2022
0.618 = 13th Oct 2022
Red lines plotted on the chart.
6) Just like Alternate price projections calculated in 2) above, we can make alternate Fib time projection ( ATP ) from corrective pattern of Wave 5 to Wave A, we can have 3 different ATP date projections.
0.618 = 14th Sept 2022
1.000 = 21st Sept 2022
1.618 = 4th Oct 2022
Purple lines plotted on the chart
7) We can calculate a cycle of Low to High bars based on past cycles.
a) Wave 1 to Wave 2 (23 bars)(33 days) - Corrective waves
b) Wave 3 to Wave 4 (20 bars)(28 days) - Corrective waves
c) Wave 5 to Wave A (14 bars)(20 days) - Motive wave
As per the Low to High cycle analysis, there is a high probability that Wave C will form between 20 days to 33 days, i.e.,
a) 21st Sept 2022 or
b) 4th Oct 2022
We can draw the workings calculated in 5) and 6) and 7) as follows.
Time retracement <---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->
12th Sept 13 Oct
ATP <-------------------------------------------------------------------------->
14th Sept 21st Sept 4th Oct
Low to High Cycle <------------------------------------------->
21 Sept 4th Oct
From the Diagram it appears that the high probability of Time retracement is 21 Sept or 4th Oct.
Lets see how it transpires in future.
Trade active:
Gold appears to be completed Wave B and now Bullish candle will go upward to form Wave C.
This piece of information is also useful for those who track Nifty50 for their investments.
Since our Gold is targeting a price level of 1829-1840 Levels at completion of Wave C formation, if we go back and check we see that the Gold was trading in this range on 14th June to 18th June and Nifty 50 was trading at 15200 levels.
This information is very useful.
This piece of information is also useful for those who track Nifty50 for their investments.
Since our Gold is targeting a price level of 1829-1840 Levels at completion of Wave C formation, if we go back and check we see that the Gold was trading in this range on 14th June to 18th June and Nifty 50 was trading at 15200 levels.
This information is very useful.
Trade active:
Gold has now completed Wave B and we are in the phase of Completion of Wave C.
It is an interesting fact that Wave C completion date as per analysis is matching with the date when FED chair Powell will announce rate hike.
It is an interesting fact that Wave C completion date as per analysis is matching with the date when FED chair Powell will announce rate hike.
Trade active:
We have entered in the Correction time zone where Fib levels are (0.382 - 0.618).
Right now we are at Fib level (0.382) and Gold is trading at 1697.
Our price Target is 1875 which appears to be very far as of now.
Let see what happens when we reach at Fib Level (0.618) which will be on 21st Sept 2022.
Right now we are at Fib level (0.382) and Gold is trading at 1697.
Our price Target is 1875 which appears to be very far as of now.
Let see what happens when we reach at Fib Level (0.618) which will be on 21st Sept 2022.
Order cancelled:
Gold has taken out Wave B Low and hence this setup for formation of Wave C is no longer valid.