As we head into a New week, why am a bull on this one is that investors are eyeing the
Rate-Cut Fever: Traders are pricing in a September Fed cut (~90% probability), which weakens the dollar and boosts gold demand Tariff Turbulence & Safe-Haven Flow: U.S. tariff policies—especially recent drama and subsequent exemptions—have kept gold in investors’ crosshairs
Strong Fundamentals: Central banks are still shopping for gold, and ETF inflows are climbing despite elevated prices.
My Tactical Summary is that
Buy dip at Retest Zone (~$3,340) or deeper near $3,300–$3,280. Stop below $3,280; Target $3,415 first, then $3,500 if macro holds
Cautious Watch If CPI or risk-off sentiment hits, expect rejection near $3,380–$3,400. Only go long with a clean move above $3,400 confirmed by macro
My theory is that if the If CPI comes in cooler than expected (lower inflation):
Fed rate-cut expectations will jump from “likely” to “almost certain.”
USD will weaken, yields will drop → Gold likely will have a bull run on that
Retest Zone 1 (~$3,340) could trigger a clean bounce toward $3,400+ almost immediately after the release. The mitigation of the $3,500 handle will have to take effect if the market smells an extended rate-cut cycle.
But on the dovish side now is that
If CPI comes in hotter than expected (higher inflation)
Fed cut odds fade, USD strengthens, yields rise → Gold could drop hard.
The Extreme Discount Zone (~$3,300–$3,280) will become the make-or-break demand area.
If that fails, we could see a quick trip to $3,245 or lower.
My final take
If CPI is bullish for gold → buy retests of $3,340 or $3,400 breakout.
If CPI bearish → short failed $3,340 retest or breakdown of $3,300.
Rate-Cut Fever: Traders are pricing in a September Fed cut (~90% probability), which weakens the dollar and boosts gold demand Tariff Turbulence & Safe-Haven Flow: U.S. tariff policies—especially recent drama and subsequent exemptions—have kept gold in investors’ crosshairs
Strong Fundamentals: Central banks are still shopping for gold, and ETF inflows are climbing despite elevated prices.
My Tactical Summary is that
Buy dip at Retest Zone (~$3,340) or deeper near $3,300–$3,280. Stop below $3,280; Target $3,415 first, then $3,500 if macro holds
Cautious Watch If CPI or risk-off sentiment hits, expect rejection near $3,380–$3,400. Only go long with a clean move above $3,400 confirmed by macro
My theory is that if the If CPI comes in cooler than expected (lower inflation):
Fed rate-cut expectations will jump from “likely” to “almost certain.”
USD will weaken, yields will drop → Gold likely will have a bull run on that
Retest Zone 1 (~$3,340) could trigger a clean bounce toward $3,400+ almost immediately after the release. The mitigation of the $3,500 handle will have to take effect if the market smells an extended rate-cut cycle.
But on the dovish side now is that
If CPI comes in hotter than expected (higher inflation)
Fed cut odds fade, USD strengthens, yields rise → Gold could drop hard.
The Extreme Discount Zone (~$3,300–$3,280) will become the make-or-break demand area.
If that fails, we could see a quick trip to $3,245 or lower.
My final take
If CPI is bullish for gold → buy retests of $3,340 or $3,400 breakout.
If CPI bearish → short failed $3,340 retest or breakdown of $3,300.
Note
First Wave: Expect a knee-jerk spike toward $3,380–$3,400.Wait for the Pullback: If the price dips back to Retest Zone 1 (~$3,340) and holds, buy on the bounce.
Target 1: $3,400–$3,415 liquidity pocket.
Target 2: Full push to $3,500 if momentum stays strong and macro tailwinds continue.
Stop Loss: Below $3,320 to avoid fake-out traps.
If CPI is much lower than expected, skip the pullback hunt and go straight for breakout buying above $3,400.
Note
Resumption of bullish tone: With rate-cut expectations intact and geopolitics still tense, gold looks primed for a rally back to $3,400+, eyeing $3,500+ in the coming days. Headline inflation’s softness reassures that the Fed sees downward pressure.Core CPI’s firmness adds complexity—but doesn’t derail the easing narrative.
September cuts are baked in: market odds surged to ~96% chance
Enter long: On a clean 4H close above $3,340–$3,350, confirming rejection of the dip.
Initial Target: $3,400, followed by the strong resistance zone near $3,500.
Stop: Sub-$3,320 to protect against another fakeout.
If price pokes below $3,334 and holds, that could be a second-chance zone — but fading that would be pushing against the macro wind.
Trade active
1st Initial Target: $3,400, done. Patient is key in this game, I am still bullish till I mitigate the 3500 zone, please start trailing the profit Trade closed: target reached
target reached as expected, since the Gold just reached a high resistance zone. I am expecting some pullback and will have to analyse this pair once we are done with this week's JOLTS Job Openings, Non-Farm Employment Change. After that, I can determine the direction the Gold will be heading.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.