This is ICICI monthly timeframe chart, which has a major trend as an uptrend.
In this, 1 to 4 waves have been formed and to complete the impulse module, the 5th wave is going to be made.
The third wave is extensive. The wave count of it is a bit unclear. When we count the minor waves of the 3rd wave, the 4th wave of minor waves is overlapping. But if we see the big cycle, the 4th wave is not overlapping.
In the 3rd wave, if we connect the points of it we can see an expanding diagonal like shape. But we know the rules that 3rd wave is always an impulse, diagonals cannot be formed in it.
Parallel Channel:
I have drawn a parallel channel. In this, supply and demand are equal, that is why there is no excess formed up here. Sellers and buyers, both are satisfied with the price.
The upper boundary and the lower boundary are acting as strong support and resistance level.
On the upper boundary, the price has touched only once, the second time it is going to. We can not take it as valid, because according to the resistance line rules, the price must touch the line twice, and the third should be touching the line in the future.
Fibonacci Retracement: The 2nd wave retracement is 100% of the 1st wave. The 3rd retracement is more than 161.8%, which is why it is an extended wave. Its retracement is 2.618. The 4th wave retracement is 0.5%. And it is not overlapping the 1st wave.
Reversal and Pressure:
I have mentioned 5 points of the price here with connecting a trend line. There is a reversal which is converting selling pressure into buying pressure. In every reversal, we find more volume than average volume. In this, we can see an engulfing pattern, spinning top, wick rejection, and piercing pattern.
After this, I have mentioned a few price points. There are pressure and reversal which is converting buying pressure into selling pressure.
Elliott Wave last move expectation:
Here the 4th wave is retraced at 0.5% of the 1st wave and it is formed. If the current move is the 5th wave, then the 1st and 5th wave distance will be equal. That is the minimum count of it. If the 5th wave can not cross the 3rd wave, there will be a truncation. The 5th wave will be called the truncated 5th wave.
If there is less momentum in price extreme, the 3rd wave of the minor waves acted as support in the previous reversal, it will act the same as before with providing support to the price. This is just an assumption that the 4th wave is formed. But if it is done, it could make a triangle or a flat zigzag.
If you trade in this situation, DO NOT forget to place the stop loss.
To check the retirement of the 5th wave, I have used Fibonacci Retracement and a trend line. If the 4th wave is formed, and the 5th wave is not truncated, the price would travel 78.6% to 100%.
By using a trend line, I am drawing a resistance line to measure the possible ending of the 5th wave.
With the trend line and Fibonacci Retirement, we can see the target will be 78.6%. ONLY if all the situations are fitted well.
According to the price action rules, the price will touch the upper boundary to get crossed out of the parallel channel.
Ichimoku Analysis: Tenkan and Kijun:
Tenkan and Kijun, both were flat and the price was making a consolidation area. The price extreme is breaking Tenkan and Kijun.
We know that Tenkan provides minor support and Kijun provides strong support. When these both were flat, it was giving a selling signal. But we know that the price was consolidating so it was a fake selling signal. This fake signal has given a clue that the cloud was below the price. The Chikou was free above the price and cloud.
The KUMO cloud provided support for the price.
This was a pure buying signal:
1- Price has taken support on cloud and cloud acted as a resistance.
2- Chikou was above the price, cloud, and Ten-Kij.
3- Ten-Kij were broken by the price. It went upwards. They both were resistance to the price but now it will be a support.
4- Price was above the cloud.
Buying will be confirmed when the current candle will be closed above Ten-Kij.
In this, 1 to 4 waves have been formed and to complete the impulse module, the 5th wave is going to be made.
On the upper boundary, the price has touched only once, the second time it is going to. We can not take it as valid, because according to the resistance line rules, the price must touch the line twice, and the third should be touching the line in the future.
I have mentioned 5 points of the price here with connecting a trend line. There is a reversal which is converting selling pressure into buying pressure. In every reversal, we find more volume than average volume. In this, we can see an engulfing pattern, spinning top, wick rejection, and piercing pattern.
Here the 4th wave is retraced at 0.5% of the 1st wave and it is formed. If the current move is the 5th wave, then the 1st and 5th wave distance will be equal. That is the minimum count of it. If the 5th wave can not cross the 3rd wave, there will be a truncation. The 5th wave will be called the truncated 5th wave.
If you trade in this situation, DO NOT forget to place the stop loss.
By using a trend line, I am drawing a resistance line to measure the possible ending of the 5th wave.
With the trend line and Fibonacci Retirement, we can see the target will be 78.6%. ONLY if all the situations are fitted well.
According to the price action rules, the price will touch the upper boundary to get crossed out of the parallel channel.
Ichimoku Analysis: Tenkan and Kijun:
We know that Tenkan provides minor support and Kijun provides strong support. When these both were flat, it was giving a selling signal. But we know that the price was consolidating so it was a fake selling signal. This fake signal has given a clue that the cloud was below the price. The Chikou was free above the price and cloud.
The KUMO cloud provided support for the price.
1- Price has taken support on cloud and cloud acted as a resistance.
2- Chikou was above the price, cloud, and Ten-Kij.
3- Ten-Kij were broken by the price. It went upwards. They both were resistance to the price but now it will be a support.
4- Price was above the cloud.
Buying will be confirmed when the current candle will be closed above Ten-Kij.
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