UNDERDOG-29

CLASSIC ELLIOT WAVE PATTERN AND TRADE SETUP LOGIC

Education
NSE:IDFCFIRSTB   IDFC FIRST BANK
Post covid IDFC FIRST has been moving up in an impulsive manner.Impulsive move advance's price in 5 waves of which 1,3 and 5 are in the direction of primary trend and 2 and 4 are counter trending.

Elliot wave Patterns discussed in this chart and it's rules.

*Elliot wave impulse pattern and rules:

#Impulse pattern

1)Wave 2 doesnt retrace wave 1 completely.
2)Wave 3 cannot be shortest of wave 1,3,and 5
3)Wave 4 should not enter wave 1 price action zone or wave 2(incase wave 2 being an running flat correction ).

#leading diagonal

Leading Diagonal:It is variation of an impulse pattern where in we see 5 wave advance in the direction of primary trend but rule 3 of impulse pattern is not followed by wave 4 and wave 4 enter's wave 1 zone.Rest of the impulse rules remains same.It can have internal structure 5-3-5-3-5 or 3-3-3-3-3.

#Extention

Extention pattern is nothing but any motive wave sub-dividing itself in 5 sub-waves of smaller degree and extending either of the motive wave by at least 161%,in this case we can see this happening in wave 3.(a classic pattern)

*Elliot wave Corrective pattern and rules:

#Flat:

1)It is a 3 wave (A-B-C) pattern,in a counter trending direction.
2)It has internal structure of 3-3-5.

There are many variation of FLAT correction depending upon wave B and wave C's length.One of which is Flat with truncated C which is seen in this chart and discussed below.

Truncated Flat:It is a variation of elliot wave corrective pattern called a FLAT correction which has 3 sub-waves(A-B-C) of almost equal length in the opposite direction of primary trend having internal structure of 3-3-5.In truncated wave C FLAT,sub-wave C doesnt retrace sub-wave A entirely by 100%,indicating strength in primary trend.

#Triangle:

Triangle is corrective pattern with 5 leg's in the form of A,B,C,D,E.Triangles are generally seen in wave 4.It has internal structure of 3-3-3-3-3.There are 3 main variation of triangle pattern ,regular triangle,expanding triangle or neutral triangle.Over here we are seeing either expanding or a neutral triangle.But i am only specifying rules of neutral triangle over here reason for which is discussed in detail below in analysis part.

Neutral Triangle:

Here wave C is longest among wave A,C and E and hence instead of A-C we connect C-E trendline in triangle formation.Triangle's are tricky pattern to trade.In classic technical analysis a head and shoulder pattern top or bottom represents neutral triangle.

Following patterns are observed in this chart:

Wave-1)Leading Diagonal-we had 5 sub-wave where in wave 4 was over-lapping wave 2.

Wave-2 ) ABC FLAT with Truncated C,meaning wave C didn't achieved it's regular flat 100% wave A extention target,indicating strong momentum in wave 3,also wave 1 was only retraced by 38% which again indicates wave 3 will be extended.

Wave-3)Classic 261.8% extention of wave-1,nothing much to explain as it's a text book elliot pattern where in momentum is strongest.

Wave-4)Triangle(either neutral or expanding),again a typical elliot 4th wave pattern where we see prices correctiong in 5 leg's A,B,C,D,E each internally sub-dividing in 3 waves giving entire structure 3-3-3-3-3 internal structure.

Analysis:As of now we are in wave 4 in primary degree,making either of the above mentioned triangle.So far we have already seen 4 leg's of this triangle and wave E is going on.In this wave E we are done with wave A and B and currently wave C is going on.I am considering this wave E as a regular flat.

Reason behind wave -4 to end near 44 levels.
1)100% wave A extention target of wave C for regular flat correction in wave E of triangle is coming @ 44. 05 INR
2)We also have 61.8% retracement of entire primary wave 3 coming @ 44.95
3)Add to it we also have intermediate wave 4 low of primary wave 3 @ 43.50 odd levels
4)lastly we have raising trend-line connecting triangle's wave C low's and wave E's sub wave B(not shown) coming at 45 odd levels.

This are sufficient evidence for priamry wave-4 to end near 43-45 levels.

Trade setup

1)For Conservative trader:
One can go long once the B-D trend-line of triangle get's broken which is coming at 50 odd levels with a initial stop-loss of wave 4 low's and expect wave 5 to be of equal length of wave 1 giving us price target of 61.Risk reward would be 1:2 expecting wave 4 ending @ 44-45 levels.
2)For Aggressive trader:
For some one who is aggressive can take long's once we get reversal candle in our target zone of 43-45 on daily chart meaning a morning star , hammer , bullish peircing, bullish engulfing candle sort of candle.Stop-loss would be same wave 4 low,however in this case we would be showing commitment before market commits itself but then one does get better risk-reward by entering early.Here also target will remain same of 61 but risk reward will be better compare to 1st scenario.

One can even add momentum indicator and a short-term moving average for further confirmation in order to take entry .

PS:Analysis shows classic text book elliot wave pattern and it's characteristics which is very rare to find on practical charts,hopefully this post help's someone who is learning elliot wave theory.We are also seeing alternation between wave 2 and wave 4 interms of price,pattern,time and retracement which is again a classic impulse characteristic.

Disclaimer:Analysis provided here is for educational purpose,trades should not be taken solely on its basis
Trade active: PRICES REVERSED FROM THE MENTIONED SUPPORT ZONE
Comment:
Price is following 27 days cycle and has recently reversed exactly on the cycle low day.Further from here if we see price closing above 51 level will confirm end of wave 4 and start of wave 5 on primary degree.

As of now it seems like wave 4 has taken a form of complex correction WXY,of which wave y has taken a form of triangle,indicating lack of momentum on the downside as triangles are found at the end of any substential moves.

Agressive trader can keep sl of 44 on downside for long entry at cmp of 47,where as safe tradershould wait for close above 51 to enter on long side,for a target of 61 and 68.
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