VPA_TRADER

IOC LONG-TERM BET, PRICE-ACTION,VOLUME PROFILE 1W

Long
NSE:IOC   INDIAN OIL CORP
Disclaimer-:
1. Long-Term Bets can be solely made from technical analysis if done correctly. Nonetheless this can be used in combination with Fundamental Analysis . So readers feel free to comment fundamental ideas if any, either in support of long or short, both will be highly appreciated.
2. **FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED.
3. Do ask your questions in the comments if any.


Firstly
During the violet region IOC went up. Since this was a smooth up-move with almost no sideways region in-between the move until it reached the all time high 224 level. After which it stayed for a prolonged sideways (distribution) and then fell smoothly but very significantly for a long time.

Volume Profile-: can be used to identify potential support and resistance lines. So by using TRADINGVIEW PRO FIXED RANGE VOLUME PROFILE . I tried to identify all the important levels (resistance) while the stock was falling. Moreover when volume of historical price levels is compared to current ones we can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions and enter before the big move happens.

IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS
1. Current Volume is very high compared to previous volume when the stock was falling. This signifies current region is important and breakout from this region will give a strong up-move. Moreover current movement is in the form of up-sloping channel so definitely an accumulation is taking place.

2. Above 108 level the volume at prices is relatively low which means there are insignificant or weak resistance levels. That means once NSE:IOC breaks out of 108 or 148 level we should expect a strong rally with less and weak obstacles(resistance).

3. We need to consider the volume from only 24Apr-17 to 9Mar-20 because thats the time when stock was falling.

TARGET WITH LOGIC
1. Since the all the time high level, 224-230, stock has been falling with very low volume . While now the volume of accumulation is too high, so there is a high chance it can reach the all-time high. Moreover it might even go more than that, but it depends what happens after the breakout.

ENTRY
1. Entry above 108 level at CMP is good enough since 108 was one of the resistance levels. But in this case stop-loss should be placed conservatively at around 71 level.
Since it is a long-term bet, placing tight stop-loss is like deliberately inviting failure. So a conservative and wide stop-loss will be better.

2. Another way is to enter after 140/148 level breakout for those who want extra confirmation.
3. Third and always the best way is position sizing. Enter partially now and add more with confirmation.

*STOP-LOSS should be trailed as per your strategy. One of the best is to trail with Moving Average in 1D timeframe with ATR( Average True Range ) as a buffer.

EXIT
Sometimes we have to exit before target is reached if there is bearishness. Following can be the clues of bearishness-:
1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low)
2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal.
3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit


**I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS ETC.
TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO LIKE AND FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT.
**YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES
**ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.
NSE:IOC

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