ikapilmittal

How to buy dips?

Education
NSE:IRCTC   INDIAN RAIL TOUR CORP LTD
In this video I talk about how we can find good buying opportunities when the markets are witnessing correction. I'm using 10,20,44 Exponential Moving Averages on my chart along with RSI (14) indicator. On the screener we are looking at stocks which have Market cap greater than 50 Billion & sorting the 3 month performance from high to low. The rationale behind this is identifying stocks with good momentum.

P.S. Please pardon me for my voice, I'm down with fever and tried my best to not cought & record this video.
Comment: I mentioned about JKLAKSHMI in the video that it looked attractive for buying as it passed all our criteria's under this strategy. It has already given 7% move since then.
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Comments

This publication has been chosen for the Editor's Picks and will be featured on https://in.tradingview.com/ideas/editors-picks/

Thank you for your valuable contribution to the TradingView community and keep up the good work!

Good video. I think more people should use the Screener to better identify trade set ups so great to see you cover that. Good way to find pullbacks.

Can I ask - why do you recommend the 10,20,44 periods? ( Nothing wrong with them - just in case I can learn something :) )
350 coins
+9 Reply
@AngusMcK Thanks for the appreciation. I actually use these moving averages to get a rough idea of the short and medium term trend of the stock. So what I have observed is that when a 10EMA cross below 20EMA it generally indicates a short term trend reversal and as long as it is above the 20EMA we can be sure of trend continuation. 44EMA gives me a slightly bigger picture of the trend. Again for most of the trending stocks I observed them respecting 44EMA whenever they witness correction. I just feel very comfortable with moving averages as they are fairly simple to use and reveal a lot about the overall trend of a stock.
+10 Reply
vorayash05 ikapilmittal
@ikapilmittal, Sorry, I have to intervene. Here's conclusive statistical work to show that price action around moving average is random. Do you know what that means? You will not be a profitable trader. Sorry, I am not trying to undermine you by just stating basic mathematics. Right now, everything will be profitable because the markets have absolutely lost the plot and you can buy and forget it and just check your account two months later you'll see what I am talking about. Once again, if you feel I am disrespecting you, I am not. Just stating facts hoping to do my part, helping you and everyone learn a bit more to become profitable. I am hoping this comment is taken as a learning opportunity and not an arrogant one.

"what I have observed is that when a 10EMA cross below 20EMA it generally indicates a short term trend reversal and as long as it is above the 20EMA we can be sure of trend continuation." - You can't say that. Observation has no value, where is the data to prove?

"for most of the trending stocks I observed them respecting 44EMA whenever they witness correction." - Once again, the same story. Where is the data? You can't be trading on hunches. This is a sure-shot recipe for disaster.

Don't believe me? Here's the proof:
https://adamhgrimes.com/200-day-moving-average-work/
+1 Reply
vorayash05 ikapilmittal
@ikapilmittal, In my first post, some people got really angry at me for saying fibs don't work but I have the proof and they don't. I stopped posting my work because people seem to get mad as I would ask them for proof and since they didn't have any, they disrespected me. This one last and futile attempt to make people understand these things conclusively DO NOT WORK.

Everyone who didn't care to open my link, here are the excerpts-

There are no “special” moving averages. (I.e., the 200 day is not special compared to the 193, 204 or any other average.)
Pricing crossing or touching a moving average does not have significance for future market direction.
The slope of a moving average is not a meaningful indicator of a trend.
Crossings of moving averages are not meaningful indications of trends.
Indicators built from moving averages are not reliable indicators of trends.
In short, most of the things that traditional technical analysis teaches about moving averages do not stand up to quantitative scrutiny
Reply
ashwathram34 vorayash05
@vorayash05, So, go ahead and educate us on what analyses works. I see that you have only criticized MA but not suggested or offered a solution to counter your point. It is just one blog you shared - where is YOUR research to quantify what you have said? And if you are absolutely certain that moving averages aren't watertight technical parameter, then go ahead and suggest what are, in your opinion, a strong technical indicator
+4 Reply
bhansa ashwathram34
Reply
vorayash05 ashwathram34
@ashwathram34, Unfortunately, I lack the statistical prowess to conduct such tests but I do understand them. For now, I have to go along with these tests as I am re-learning statistical testing.
My solution for a strong technical indicator?
None of them. But a certain combination of them help to quantify the quality of the market. I use Keltner Channel (20 periods, 3 ATR) to quantify overextensions, potential imbalance in buying selling pressure. RSI is a good indicator but not to take reversal trades but rather with the trend. If the market is overbought, you're better off buying that market. Timing and location are vital.

PS: Re-read my comment. I stopped posting my work. I have 3 systems in place but I am done working with the TV community. People here don't like statistical testing.
Reply
@vorayash05, I think your approach is just wrong, reason why people are hitting back on you. Your entire response is extremely passive-aggressive where you are dissing someone else's post and then saying sorry. What is the point of saying sorry at all?

Instead of shitting on someone else's post and telling people that their methods are wrong, make the effort to prove why their method is wrong what would be the best alternative to analyze the market. We are all here to make money but if you take a dump on someone else's effort, people will get back at you. And do not show us what Adam H Grimes has to say, show us your analysis and methods you use to make a profit. Do a 100+ trading test, prove your worth, then maybe we will listen to what you have to say!

Until then, some of us will keep testing, tweaking and implementing what the other fellow traders have to say!
+2 Reply
Comment removed.
@vorayash05, No one is crying and whining except you! Goodbye!
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