For the Short position I've based my analysis on Probability of a down movement after X_i successively Up movement based on the Historical 300 Candle. The mix of RSI (that view it as Hyper bought) and the ATR (that tell that there is lot of volatility on the stocks that could engine up the force of movements).
For the Long position I've based my analysis on the same probability calculation and a fundamental analysis on the value of cash flows of the company.
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