When to sell_ ITC

Sep 16, 2022

Namaste!
I have been tracking ITC for quite some time. Now, I see an upcoming bearish momentum in the coming weeks.
Q: Why am I saying this?
A: Well, all time high of ITC was Rs 367.70. It broke it's multiyear lows (of Rs 178.65) on 09 March 2020. So, it can be a long term pattern of "lower lows and lower highs". This price can be the next lower highs. Profit booking will definitely come at this prices, because there will be many investors who will be exiting "before Rs 367.7 prices". And Nifty did not break Apr 2022 swing highs, it is indicating an upcoming bearish momentum.

Q: When and at what price should I exit?
A: You can place a sell stop order at Rs 329.60, so you lock in your profits. I would suggest positional traders to do this. I repeat, prices must break those levels, so your order gets triggered and you exit.

For investors, they can consider booking/exiting at such prices as well. And they can consider buying it back at Rs 281 levels. I am not right 100% of the time, so only apply this when my points seem logical to you.

Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Prices may or may not reach mentioned levels, resulting in opportunity loss. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before applying anything.

Oct 28, 2022

Note

Rs 324.5 is the last price to exit, in my opinion.

Nov 19, 2022

Note

Updated: Rs 339 is the last price to exit, in my opinion.

Feb 5, 2023

Note

It looks like giving a breakout in weekly charts. BUT, institutions sell at such breakouts to minimize "impact cost" as much as possible. Beware of the "fakeout", the price behavior is "if it closes below Rs 359.9 in the next week itself, it could be a fake breakout".
People can do two things apart from holding this stock, 1. to de-risk by booking 50% profits at current levels and 2. to sell the entire positions and look for a correction of more than 20% from all time highs. Predicting stock prices is like predicting the future, and it is not possible in current era of technology. However, probability and experience can guide us to some extent.

Jul 5, 2023

Note

On 01 Feb 2023, ITC stock created day high-low range of 11%. It was the day Budget Day ITC investors were waiting for announcement of whether tax will be hiked on cigarettes. Since, more than 40% revenue come from cigarettes for ITC, it was a potential news. My analysis of selling ITC gone wrong. Maybe because Technical Analysis has limitations (it doesn't take fundamental factors into consideration, like news on 01 Feb). Still, its rising valuations is concerning me. Maybe Rs 538 will act as a resistance.

Nov 23, 2023

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I expect anyone who is reading my writings to know that there is nothing "certain" in the markets. Neither the %gain on stock nor "out-performance" or "under-performance". There is a risk and opportunity cost involved in both, buying and selling. Selling at any price can often result in "opportunity loss" when the stock moves higher and higher. Human psychology is a culprit here. For e.g. I post any stock which seems undervalued or overvalued to me on tradingview. When anyone makes money on that, they wont appreciate me "a single word". But when they lose or it results in opportunity loss, they are bound to blame me. I don't criticize any person, because I know their psychology has defeated them. At last, there is nothing like "easy money" in the markets. The survival of the fittest holds absolutely true here.

Nov 30, 2023

Note

One other example of a culprit human psychology. I am short on Nifty50, so I started looking for reasons of market falling. I found that there is a pneumonia outbreak in China recently. It felt me happy because I was short on Nifty50 and it may result in falling market (correction). But, is it humane? Praying to god to make people die, just to make some money in the short position? It felt really bad after realizing this. May be that's why the god made bull markets more often and more lasting (time) than bear markets. Pessimism is short-lived whereas optimism lives longer. Optimism always wins in the long term. Take for instance a glass half-filled with water. You can't get or achieve anything seeing it half-empty. But, you surely achieve something seeing it "half-full".