MSTR: Mid-term and Macro Price Structure

Apr 5

As price holds below $344, odds favor a continuation lower to retest February lows, with later potential bounce and one more push to macro-support levels: 160/150-120 (with a potential extension to 105)
(see. recent idea on BTC price structure)

If BTC and broad market indexes show signs of stabilization and short-term strength over the coming weeks with MSTR price rising above 344, the odds are shifting to a more pronounce bounce to 400-460 resistance levels.

Weekly chart:


From a macro perspective:
as long as price remains below the 460 level, I consider the bullish trend since 2008 lows to have topped in November 2024, with current price action unfolding as part of a larger corrective Wave c.4 structure. Otherwise, If price reclaims ATH the door opens for an extension to 780-1280 resistance levels.

Monthly chart


Recent idea on BTC: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/kWQxwuLL-BTC-Mid-Term-Outlook-Key-Levels-Wave-Structure/

Apr 21

Note

Price in the mid-term resistance. If price holds bellow 346, I'm expecting a new leg down bellow March/April lows to start unfolding in coming weeks

Apr 23

Note

Adjusted mid-term resistance zone: 350-380 with possible extension to 405.

Oct 30

Note

MSTR The alternative scenario of a higher bounce outlined in the April idea played out well. If price fails to reclaim the 277 local resistance level, odds will shift toward continuation lower in the coming weeks — potentially deeper into macro support. Key downside levels to watch: 238/232–194, with a possible max extension toward the 150 area.

Chart:

Nov 14

Note

As price continues to develop within the outlined structure, the local resistance level shifts with it. As long as price remains below 233, any potential lower-high formation into the resistance zone or short-term EMAs is to be viewed as a bounce within a broader corrective phase, with odds favoring a deeper move toward the 176–148 levels.

Chart:

Nov 19

Note

Price continues to follow the path outlined in the late October and November 15 updates.

175 is a important level where a bounce reaction toward 195–210 may occur.
However, as long as price stays below 210 (with a possible extension to 233), the working assumption remains the same:

I’m watching for more downside into the ideal support region at 165–150/145, where the corrective structure since Nov'24 top could finally complete.

Chart: