Nifty spot analysis using Ichimoku and price action analysis

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
621 2
Trend : Down untill Nifty cross cloud top @ 10725
Nearest resistance =10593-10617
Second round of selling below 10440
I feel that Nifty will now go to 9 800
so u think chance of breakdown below 10440 is more than nifty going up to 10600 ?
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