Nifty 50 beyond technical analysis
Nifty View.
Nifty has been highly volatile from past sessions, and will be for few more days. Commodities super cycle beginning, that causes rise in commodities and basic raw materials aswell which effects into high inflation.
Well india has been managing its Gdp and Nominal Gdp altogether differently from other countries. Central Bank has not changed the rates like the Fed in US . Dollar index is expected to make new highs in coming time. {dollar index is not dollar in usd nor the dollar in gbp or euro. Its the index which is calculated by taking 4-6 currency and making a index}. The commodity like steel copper which is used in around 80% of the Infrastructure and basic needs .Which can effect into high manufacturing cost , transportation cost , causing increase in foods and other utilities ultimately high inflation.
Ultimately People get used to the High prices , as one can compare in lay men term the cost of owing a house, car , shares, metals , etc in 1980s vs in 2008 vs in 2020s. there has been a significant increase in bottom prices of this capital assets.
One who had a high ratio of liquid cash or equivalent in hand has become relatively poor. Commodities has always proven to be safe heaven .
On a simple scale- Nifty 50 has 0.50 chances of falling and 0.25 chances of advancing . Other 0.25 being status quo which means sideways kind of market.
Bottom line- Nifty 50 can go lower due to geopolitical tension ( which causes high prices in commodites). Nifty has reversed from every resistance from past few weeks. The recent increase can be justified as the market was oversold . The Nifty might retrace to 0.5.-0.6 fibo levels. Well many theories has been proven wrong and in contradiction every theory is profitable. So What works for trading ?
-Go with Trend .
-mean reversion.
And various other models and theories which suits one best .
I will be more than happy if Nifty stays bullish , But we cannot ignore the past trends and the data which is readily available to us .
Nifty has been highly volatile from past sessions, and will be for few more days. Commodities super cycle beginning, that causes rise in commodities and basic raw materials aswell which effects into high inflation.
Well india has been managing its Gdp and Nominal Gdp altogether differently from other countries. Central Bank has not changed the rates like the Fed in US . Dollar index is expected to make new highs in coming time. {dollar index is not dollar in usd nor the dollar in gbp or euro. Its the index which is calculated by taking 4-6 currency and making a index}. The commodity like steel copper which is used in around 80% of the Infrastructure and basic needs .Which can effect into high manufacturing cost , transportation cost , causing increase in foods and other utilities ultimately high inflation.
Ultimately People get used to the High prices , as one can compare in lay men term the cost of owing a house, car , shares, metals , etc in 1980s vs in 2008 vs in 2020s. there has been a significant increase in bottom prices of this capital assets.
One who had a high ratio of liquid cash or equivalent in hand has become relatively poor. Commodities has always proven to be safe heaven .
On a simple scale- Nifty 50 has 0.50 chances of falling and 0.25 chances of advancing . Other 0.25 being status quo which means sideways kind of market.
Bottom line- Nifty 50 can go lower due to geopolitical tension ( which causes high prices in commodites). Nifty has reversed from every resistance from past few weeks. The recent increase can be justified as the market was oversold . The Nifty might retrace to 0.5.-0.6 fibo levels. Well many theories has been proven wrong and in contradiction every theory is profitable. So What works for trading ?
-Go with Trend .
-mean reversion.
And various other models and theories which suits one best .
I will be more than happy if Nifty stays bullish , But we cannot ignore the past trends and the data which is readily available to us .
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