Nifty : False Breakouts n another Ranging Day ?!

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
I think I should post My analysis by 8.45 am or earlier, Daily when I'm writing up description pre-market happens and then I need to include premarket scenario's too. Need to work on My Morning Schedule !

By yesterday evening, in the last post, I have updated about Double bottom and as result of it we had this Gap Up opening in Nifty             . Don't worry Guys, this is not that signal for Long, Nifty             is just teasing us it may play around top trendline of triangle n will get back to range, In my opinion {may be wrong},
(i) Nifty             won't breakout of triangle and will range
(ii) Later session or end of day, Nifty             will give breakout confirmation & depending on Fed outcome, it can be whipsaw or valid breakout. If the breakout direction and Fed outcome also aligns with Nifty             , then good gap up will be there 2mrw. But No hurry's to trade, Nifty             will be always here.

This is hourly chart, so for Intraday we have good resistance around 8800-8810's. So on bearish confirmation with 15 or 5min chart initiating short positions in Nifty             for 20 points down move till the base line of triangle will be good idea. If possible late by day, I will update intraday chart for Nifty             below in comments. Look at Nifty             , there is no directional movement even after 15mins, lets see whether we get any action as time goes.
Even if this double bottom works n moves up, dont worry, we can enter after bullish breakout in triangle {safe way to trade}. With the breakout confirmation, carry manageable risk only on short positions { very limited risk, dont take huge risk with expectations on Fed outcome}.

Fed outcome is always about interpretation of wordings,Even if there is no rate hike 2mrw, Fed will say "considering rate hike soon" , 4 words are enough for market to go on euphoria. Thats why again suggesting not to carry much risk tonight. Markets will be always here, we can trade.

BottomLine : Ranging day, with breakout signal by end of day, which can be false or valid depending on Fed outcome. Nifty             will be always here, we can trade, so control the urge to trade during risky days.

Note :
(i) Trying My Best to reply all pings, so don't assume that I'm not replying for you.
(ii) New traders who are eager to learn about technical analysis , expect something real simple from Myside. For them, planning to post few moving average setups { For learning purposes only, obviously Moving averages work, so don;t worry guys}

Happy Trading !

Comment: Just an info, I'm not long yet,let the next candle confirm the bullish sign ! But that doesn't mean you should stay away, Proceed as per your plan !
Trade active: Shorts On... 8802's with 20 point stops
Trade closed: stop reached: Stops Gone ;)
as you have mentioned your post by 8.30 am would be of great guidance
+1 Reply
InsiderB priya61
From 2mrw...
again you proved right , good analysis .
InsiderB rathirathi2001
Thanks, I'm glad that you like the content I share. All the Best !
your chart worked well for me.thanks
+1 Reply
InsiderB priya61
Thanks for taking a moment to comment. All the Best !
Do you hedge your positions using Options to take care of overnight gaps?
I trade options strategy and futures separately, so no hedges !
VPS InsiderB
In that case, overnight gaps become quite risky... especially if they go against you.
true, I hold less than 50% of my positions only overnight. Consider yesterday, bcos of double bottom I exited all by close, so depending on market movement,I decide
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