Friday morning, markets opened to shocker from US. Elimination of General Qassem Soleimani in a raid spooked world markets. On Thursday, US markets had jumped by 330 points to close at record high. But party was rocked on Friday morning. For us, two bothering issues came to fore - Oil and US dollar. Brent crude rose by 3% in the initial trades and now is trading at USD 68.60/bbl in international markets- quite a significant rise! USD rose to 71.79, up by 42 paise. So expectedly IT companies were among top gainers. However, surprisingly, Nifty went down by only 55 points and closed at 12226. Given the magnitude of crisis, had the market been on weak footing, it would have lost a minimum of 100 points. Please check my video posted on youtube under channel name Market Movers India for slightly more analytical content. Banknifty lost substantially by 374.6 points. FIIs were net buyers (1263 Crs) and DIIs were net Sellers (1029 Crs). So it seems institutions are not much perturbed by this attack and are not at all in Sell- all mode. Yet the crisis remains and it will ensure that Now markets will not rise unchecked. Which means, that if Nifty reaches 12300, some selling should come and, if Nifty reaches around 12100-150, some buying should take place. Option chain shows that on PUT side, highest total OI is at 12200 but highest fresh Put writing is at 12100. So I would peg a safe support at 12100. On CALL side, highest total OI is at 12300 but fresh highest Call writing is at 12250 and given the precarious situation we are in, I would take 12250 as resistance. On daily chart, Nifty made a red candle with lower high and lower low but closed above 12200 which is good. There are no clear cut levels on 15 min chart, but buying should be done only if Nifty crosses 12295 conclusively or at 20 DEMA which is at 12154. For selling, one will have to follow index as market opens on Monday.
All the best. Happy trading.
All the best. Happy trading.