NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
384 9
However there was nothing in the Daily candle of 6.12.2017 that indicated a strong upmove (although the Doji candle of 5.12.2017 did indicate indecision but it was annulled by strong negative candle of 6.12.2017
then what was the reason we didnt went short even after no rate cut and after a breakdown of trendline as well as a negative candle after doji ..rather waited for short?
It was this positive divergence in Hourly charts at crucial channel support
it was very good learning for trader , that dnt decide ur trade based on just one candle rather wait for a confirmation.
Now going forward-
again the Daily candles have been very strongly positive for last two days.But a look at Hourly chart through Andrew's Pitchfork shows the Median is about to be tested and RSI moving into overbought territory.
So the Monday opening is likely to be strong but after that Nifty moves are unlikely to be as exciting as it has been for last two days, though individual stocks are likely to do a catching-up.
10315 & 10340 appear as Resistance points
On the downside
10180 becomes a support.
we will be also watching these trendline breakout Rsi and nifty (near 10330 level) for afurther big upmove towards 10800 and 11000.

Dec 10
Comment: took exact resistance at trendline...
Dec 11
Comment: As Nifty approaches 10360, I expect a pause/dip to set in. 10270 would be the support now. If it starts settling below 10270, then 10195-10180 gap-up band would come into picture as a major support till Election results.
I am looking at Gujarat elections as a major event whose results should have an impact like May 2014 ..
Dec 12
Comment: as expected
Dec 13
Comment: nifty after giving a sharp bounce trapped bulls and hence filled the gap of 10180 levels
Dec 13
Comment: at this point i wil go with long straddle strategy 10200 call and put keeping gujrat election as a key turning factor for market . both call and put trading at 136 and 138 respectively.
Dec 16
Comment: Sunil Minglani:
"Share market mein jahaan dhol baj rahe hote hain, wahaan shaadi nahi hoti".

Opinion polls (exit or pre-exit) are farce and provide only a material to "eye-ball inclined" TV channels. The fact remains that election-results have yet to be factored in by the markets. 2 probabilities-1) bullish probability for Nifty in the form of Butterfly Harmonic pattern (targeting minimum 10510 and maximum 10640)
However, I feel its necessary to post a Bearish Probability as well as today's hype (almost everyone is long in the markets believing BJP win will lead to a big rally) has made me very cautious.
The possibility of a 3-3-5 type of Corrective ABC is very much alive wherein
A(3w)=10490-10033 has played out;
B(3w)= is in play wherein
a=10033-10329 (296 points) has played out;
b=10329-10141 (188 points) has played out;
c=10141- upwards is in play and may test 10141+296=10440
C= 5w Impulse downwards may start after that.
And on charts it would appear like this
How does RSI look on hourly/30 min? Does it all sense to go short for a pull back ?
KumarAbhilash sharuvman
@sharuvman, i couldnt get what u want to say.. please elaborate so that i can explain my reasons ..
sharuvman KumarAbhilash
@KumarAbhilash, I see now updates now. My question was how does RSI chart look like in smaller time sets (30,15 min). In your latest chart it is looking like RSI is showing overbought. Does it make sense to short nifty with 10370 as SL?
KumarAbhilash sharuvman
@sharuvman,please check ur pm.
YOUR bear trap divergence with an hourly positive divergence was a good observation of the charts. In monthly chart, it has moved from the mdz. Let us wait for a correct upmove. I expect the nifty to come down tomorrow also.
+1 Reply
Nifty may not reach qm levels again. with gap existing below it, may again come down. With election results looming large, may have a kiss at 10011 an untested level before going up which would also complete LL and LH. Though another zone exists from 10033 to 10088, this is a tested level. This is my take on Nifty.
Good Analysis !!
Doji indecision is annulled by negative candle still u dint go short and waited for confirmation cos of positive divergence on hourly ,good analysis.
KumarAbhilash umesh_tradingview
+1 Reply
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