NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 18 Mar 24

Mar 15

As we have discussed in our Video, Nifty is trading at its 200 EMA in 1-H TF, which has been providing very nice support.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading at the support zone. Also, 22950 provided a nice bullish pullback twice today, which indicates 21950 to be a good support level for now. The market is trading in a Bearish Zone right now. So, avoid naked call buying. You will end up losing theta.

If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.80, which shows that the market is bullish. 22000 has heavy CE and PE writing. CE writing was significantly more than PE writing, which indicates 22000 will be providing nice resistance for now. Looking at the OI change market, it is sideways.
Looking at the FII Data, we can say the market might open a gap-down.

I am expecting the market to be sideways for 1 or 2 days.
Case 1: Sideways in the range 21950 - 22050.
Case 2: Bullish if the trendline breaks to the upside.

Reasons:

1. Price < EMA(13, 200) shows market is in bearish trend. Also, EMA(13) << EMA(200), which indicates the market needs some consolidation.
   
2. RSI = 48, which is 40-60, indicates the market is going to be sideways.
   
3. VWAP ≡ Price means the price is volume balanced. We can expect a move soon.
   
4. PCR = 0.80, which shows a bullish sentiment in the market. On the other hand, the 22000 level had massive CE and PE writing. 22000 is going to provide good support and resistance here.
   

Verdict: Sideways and Bullish.

Plan of Action:
Case 1: Sell 22000 CE & PE. Exit one leg if it breaks the zone. (hedge with 20/- PE)
Case 2: Sell 22000 PE (hedge with 20/- PE)