NIFTY for 5th September

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Morning today sprung a surprise. Due to positive political development in Hong Kong, Hang Seng surged up. SGX Nifty taking cue from it too was showing positive till our openning hour. Otherwise, Dow Jones closed in negative last night. Though our market openned flat and looked non-commital & weak for a long time, Banknifty kept pulling it up almost till closing hours. Now with all the bad news digested, rupee recovering, how would Nifty react tomorrow, on the expiry day? Let's find out.
1) FII & DII data: Provisional data shows that FIIs were Net sellers today too by 1738.5 Crs and DIIs were Net buyers by around 1305 Crs . In absolute terms, FIIs sold shares worth 5498 Crs and DIIs bought shares worth 3624 Crs .This I am telling to let you know the who the larger force is. From this perspective, again tomorrow, FIIs will look to sell if Shares rise to above-range highs.
2) Option Chain data- On PUT side, total highest OI ( 19.73 lakhs) is at 10800 strike which has 2nd highest fresh PUT writing (5.55 lakhs). The highest Fresh put writing (6.34 lakhs) is at 10700 strike which in turn has 2nd highest total OI (15.29 lakhs). On CALL side, total highest OI ( 30.55 lakhs) is at 11000 strike and the highest Fresh Call writing (6.28 lakhs) is at 10800 strike. 2nd highest total OI (29.91 lakhs) is at 10900 strike. Now if you see OC regularly, you will notice that highest fresh writing on both sides is quite low. Normally, just before weekly expiry day, these figures would be in the ball park figure of 10 lakhs. These low figures therefor suggest 2 things- one, lot of option writers have stayed away and, two, almost equal figures show that Call and Put writers both are equically guarding their own levels. So which way index will go? In my opinion, index will give trades on both sides and hence I have marked both buying as well as selling areas on chart. Also, beware, both have the capacity to break stop-losses in both directions! Yes, it is dangerous. So trade wisely with strict SL.
3) Charts- Nifty closed as a green candle with lower low and lower high. Frankly, it can go in any direction. With FIIs gunning for sale, on a normal day, Nifty would have remained range- bound or would go down. But since tomorrow is expiry, compulsory settlement might lead to short covering which can push it up.
To conclude, I will advise to put strict SL and book profit as soon as it comes near target.
All the best. Happy trading.
Awesome, It worked for me :)
@Mukesh07, good for you:)
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