chetanpathare

Nifty: Current market scenario

Long
chetanpathare Updated   
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Nifty has been falling for last 4 days without a 50% retracement on daily chart, let’s try to interpret the chart on Fibo levels.

We can consider 3 Fibonacci,
1. Fibonacci with (right Fibonacci)
Level 0: 16410.2, Low of 20th December’21, which also happens to be seasonal Low as per 120 days cycle
Level 1: 18350.9 current high formed on 18th January’22.
If we follow this Fibonacci,
50% retracement level: 17380.6, marked with blue line, if we find a support a these levels, it can be termed as a signal but we also need to get a confirmation in the form of a pattern (a range and then 50% or 0.236 level retracement for entry for uptrend), to get an entry for uptrend.

2. Fibonacci with (center Fibonacci)
Level 0: 16410.2, Low of 20th December’21, which also happens to be seasonal Low as per 120 days cycle
Level 1: 17155.6 formed on 24th December’21. And then around 50% retracement level on 27th December and then further upwards movement to 1.618 level and then latest 2.618 level on 18th January’22 which was 18361.65 but market reached a level of 18350.9 which was just short of 10-11 points of the level.
If we follow this Fibonacci,
1.618 level: 17616.25, Friday’s closing has been 17617.15 which has been just above the mark, if we consider these levels as support, it can be termed as a signal but we also need to get a confirmation in the form of a pattern (a range and then 50% or 0.236 level retracement for entry for uptrend), to get an entry for uptrend.

3. Fibonacci wth (Left Fibonacci)
Level 0: 16410.2, Low of 20th December’21, which also happens to be seasonal Low as per 120 days cycle.
Level 1: 18604.45, All Time High (ATH) formed on 19th October’21.

If we look at the 50% retracement level, it comes to around 17507.25 (marked with Green line), while Friday’s low was 17485.85, if this forms as a support level it can be termed as a signal but we also need to get a confirmation in the form of a pattern (a range and then 50% or 0.236 level retracement for entry for uptrend), to get an entry for uptrend.

Let’s wait and watch, what signals does the market provide.
Markets may not move beyond these points without a 50% retracement levels, so we need to watch carefully what happens next.
Comment:
bingo, a signal and a confirmation @17380 levels.
Comment:
Nifty today has taken support at 0.236 level of the range from Low of 20th December'21 to 18th January'22 High.
Will update in next idea
Comment:
Fibonacci 3 Weekly Support at 17507, yesterday, Nifty touched it and started moving up.
Closing above this signal gives a positive signal for upward movement.

If you check with RSI & MACD on weekly, it is Bearish trend.
Trade wisely