The Nifty50 is currently down over 13% from its all-time high. After studying the chart for a while, I’ve arrived at a possible scenario.
Since COVID, the index has remained within a channel, and I don’t see any major catalysts—like a recession, pandemic, war, or significant news—driving this decline. In fact, we’ve weathered much more severe global events since COVID.
Given this, I lean toward the possibility of a small bounce or consolidation rather than a crash.
But could my view be wrong? Of course—it’s always possible that the market behaves differently than I expect. Can I control that? Not at all. The best I can do is align with the market and let it take its course.
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