Confidence is shaken! If you look at data on any landscape, you get this feeling strongly. And the possible reasons, Rupee fell by 29 paise, Gold is still trading around 39,000 levels, crude touching $60 per barrel ? No. I feel real reason is fear of slowdown or worse, recession hitting home. Lets buttress the findings with data:
1) FII & DII data- Provisional data shows that FIIs were Net sellers by 935 Crs and DIIs were Net Buyers by 359 Crs. Final data shows that FIIs were Net Sellers in Equity by 1041 Crs, but Net Buyers in index futures by 655 Crs and in stock futures by 1784 Crs. FIIs have not stopped selling! And like I remarked yesterday, today too in stock futures, figures were- bought worth 42,652 Crs and Sold worth 40,868 Crs. FIIs are squaring off trades same day. These figures normally used to be in the range of 12000 to 15000 Crs. But now they do not want to take risk and that's why I said confidence is shaken.
2) Option chain data- On PUT side, another proof of lack of confidence, though it is justified to some extent due to fall today. On PUT side, I was surprised to see that there is unwinding on all strikes except 2 strikes of 10850 & 11050 and there too Put addition is lower than 70,000 contracts! Total highest OI ( 39.41 lakhs) is on 11000 strike and highest unwinding ( 3.91 lakhs), near ATM strikes, is also on this strike. What is surprising is at lower strikes of 10900, 10800, 10700, etc. all have unwinding but with good total OI too. So Put writers too are not confident of support. On CAll side, highest total OI (46.47 lakhs) is 11200 at strike but fresh highest Call writing (14.12 lakhs) is at 11100 strike. There is unwinding at strikes lower than 10900 but call addition at higher strikes near ATM. Yestreday Put writers seemed confident but today CAll writers look more confident. So 11100 looks like good resistance for now. But yes, tomorrow being expiry, it is observed that directions can reverse and hence anything can happen.
3) Charts- Nifty closed marginally below 20 DEMA but dipped to a low of 10987. A burst of buying between 3 to 3.10 pm too it up to 11056 before closing at 11046. Yet the nifty red candle finished with lower low and lower high as compared to yesterday's candle.The mood is clearly bearish. I could not spot any clear cut Selling area. So short as per movement on chart but trade with SL and book profits at supports given on chart. Breaking of upper limit will lead to new highs and breaking of lower limit will lead to fresh lows.
All the best. Happy trading.
1) FII & DII data- Provisional data shows that FIIs were Net sellers by 935 Crs and DIIs were Net Buyers by 359 Crs. Final data shows that FIIs were Net Sellers in Equity by 1041 Crs, but Net Buyers in index futures by 655 Crs and in stock futures by 1784 Crs. FIIs have not stopped selling! And like I remarked yesterday, today too in stock futures, figures were- bought worth 42,652 Crs and Sold worth 40,868 Crs. FIIs are squaring off trades same day. These figures normally used to be in the range of 12000 to 15000 Crs. But now they do not want to take risk and that's why I said confidence is shaken.
2) Option chain data- On PUT side, another proof of lack of confidence, though it is justified to some extent due to fall today. On PUT side, I was surprised to see that there is unwinding on all strikes except 2 strikes of 10850 & 11050 and there too Put addition is lower than 70,000 contracts! Total highest OI ( 39.41 lakhs) is on 11000 strike and highest unwinding ( 3.91 lakhs), near ATM strikes, is also on this strike. What is surprising is at lower strikes of 10900, 10800, 10700, etc. all have unwinding but with good total OI too. So Put writers too are not confident of support. On CAll side, highest total OI (46.47 lakhs) is 11200 at strike but fresh highest Call writing (14.12 lakhs) is at 11100 strike. There is unwinding at strikes lower than 10900 but call addition at higher strikes near ATM. Yestreday Put writers seemed confident but today CAll writers look more confident. So 11100 looks like good resistance for now. But yes, tomorrow being expiry, it is observed that directions can reverse and hence anything can happen.
3) Charts- Nifty closed marginally below 20 DEMA but dipped to a low of 10987. A burst of buying between 3 to 3.10 pm too it up to 11056 before closing at 11046. Yet the nifty red candle finished with lower low and lower high as compared to yesterday's candle.The mood is clearly bearish. I could not spot any clear cut Selling area. So short as per movement on chart but trade with SL and book profits at supports given on chart. Breaking of upper limit will lead to new highs and breaking of lower limit will lead to fresh lows.
All the best. Happy trading.