Gem23

Brief Recovery is part of the Head & Shoulders pattern!

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
In the previous Head & Shoulder alert that I had raised in mid February, I had stated that the market was heading lower, and that it can test 10030 on March 8th. However, that process got a little delayed and today on 20 March it has come near.
Please note that, to play out a perfect Head & Shoulders the left shoulder needs to be repeated, but in different colour. If you see green candles on the left, they will reflect in red colour on the right side!
If you note the two ecliptic spots on the left and the right, it is all but certain that there could be a minor rally. Experts say it will find it difficult to go above 10200, but I think, it can climb up to 10300-10400 levels from where it can resume its southern journey again.
Well I do not have historical data to prove if right shoulder will perfectly reflect the right, but looking at the RSI chart of the Nifty             as well as Bank Nifty             (and many of its component scrips), it looks like we are in an oversold zone, which could mean a claw back for a couple of hundred points. Almost all the negative factors for the moment (US interest rate, trade war, oil             prices, LTCG etc) are priced in, but over the medium and long term, the political factors will dictate the future direction of the market. But looking at the way BJP is seeing reverses in elections, the opposition's re-united stance (if SP             & BSP             can come together, then even Shiv Sena and CPIM can!) and Karnataka Congress's major religious move could mean tougher times for the BJP and the market heading up to May 2019. But that is a bit far away, let us focus on the immediate period of say, a month.
Comment: There could be a 150-200 point recovery in Nifty in the next 2-3 sessions, before that gets wiped out in the remaining 3 sessions of the month.
Expecting a close of 10100 by Thu 29 March.
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