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NIFTY OUTLOOK 13/01/2020

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
NSE:NIFTY
THIS IS A LONG TERM VIEW OF NIFTY
Since Nov first week, Nifty has been quite in a consolidation phase. For majority of the trading days it didn’t turned out to be profitable for the buyers of both sides of options but yes definitely for sellers. And everyone is aware about the peaceful world scenario we are having right now.
Coming to chart the short term can be really confusing with many pivot levels that are generated on daily basis. Whenever there is confusion in short term it’s better to shift to long term. This study is done on weekly and monthly chart so any short term position initiation on the basis of this would be foolishness.
WEEKLY CHART:
The above is a weekly chart and the observation starts from 1st Jan 2008. There is a giant bearish Wolfe Wave forming from the date and during this journey it had entered the sweet zone many times. It has even exceeded many times but importantly it’s respecting the Wolfe Wave .
Because in the mean time that is since last week of August 2018 it is trying to form another Bearish Wolfe wave . The last leg of the bearish Wolfe ( 5th Wave) is almost at 1. 618 retracement level of the trend (Wave 2,3 & 4). This Bearish Wolfe Wave formed recently and may be the confirmation that Nifty may head towards the target line of the previously formed Bearish Wolfe Wave . These are a clear hint of the market may going bearish really soon or sooner in months or years . This chart is only for long term trend indication not short term.
- The pattern is formed, but I really don’t know what will trigger Nifty to make the pattern Valid. May be the current peaceful world scenario having US, Iran, Libya, China and Russia as a major contributor.
- May be the next financial crisis where US and Japan are the major contributor to the Global Corporate and Govt Debt. Don’t Forget about Start up bubble and the major corporate funding them and the countries they belong from. Or Exotic derivatives could be another. It really difficult to assume in which way.
Again coming technically to chart pattern the clear look comes when we view the monthly chart in LOG scale. In LOG scale chart the lines that are drawn looks linear but in reality that’s curve. And that is accurate because according to my observation it fits the space time better. And you will gradually see in the next chart. Although the physics behind it would be lengthy to explain so let’s avoid the explanation for now.
Monthly Chart:
In monthly LOG scale chart the observation starts from way back Oct 2000. Bullish Wolfe Wave started and was fulfilled. Similarly Bearish Wolfe Wave started forming in Jan 2004 and was completed with 2008 crisis.


And again a Bearish Wolfe Wave started forming since Jan 2008 and is still active. A Bearish Wolfe Wave has formed since August 2018 with in Bearish Wolfe Wave running previously since Jan 2008. And surprisingly it has already taken the (2 4 L) as resistance, indicating clearly the diminishing velocity of NIFTY . And this could only be observed only in LOG scale, you won’t get a hint about the slowing velocity of Nifty in linear scale chart. And Nifty has already respecting 2.33 and 1.33 ( GANN LEVELS)in both trend based and linear retracement. But on trend basis of the Bearish Wolfe Wave (Aug 2018) Nifty still has the space to move till 12380 or 12400 to complete the 5th Wave . So the upcoming period may be very confusing.

And Nifty needs to give a breakout in order to make such formed patterns invalid and fill us with new hope and optimism.
Thanks for going through the article I really appreciate your time. Happy Investing
Comment: If you zoom and watch carefully the dotted line drawn has been respected with the high of 16th Jan.
Now this a make or break zone. No overnight forward long position until and unless no clear signals generated.
Comment: Our Honorable Finance Minister helped us a lot so that we continue believing on Technical Analysis.The very state subjects which unfortunately became central ministry in the previous budget such as Dairy and Animal Husbandry & Jal Shakti.
We could see in this budget it was focused to pump funds into those ministry.
Seriously 11000 Level is not at all surprising now.
Trade active: Now I guess, 11000 Level won't be surprising for the trader community too because we have almost reached.
On 17th Jan Updated with the highest and the reversal point of the NIFTY.
On 2nd Feb the target for 11000 was mentioned.
(Mentioned this previously i don't know what would trigger this ! And Corona virus wasn't famous when this chart was posted)
Timeline of Corona Virus : https://kyma.com/lifestyle/health/2020/0...
Now, The virus will go after a time span but how it has affected whose debt cycle and to what extent ? The other institutions connected to the institutions whose debt cycle is affected may trigger something else. Finally this current slowdown may led the few institutions to present a fabricated accounts sheets and that could be a problem too. That would be a time when you should be really careful about stocks.
Comment: Broke The 2-4 TL. Now Let's wait for the Nifty to touch the Target Line, Or some Miracle to Happen.
Trade active: 1st Target of the Bearish Wolfe Wave Complete.
Heading towards the 2-4 TL of the Previous Bearish Wolfe Wave. Happy Trading
Trade closed manually: I am closing this chart would come up with a new one soon. Start finding opportunity to do the 1st Bottom Fishing.
In Nifty Future a Bottom of 7350- 7400 Level has been recorded.I thank Nifty for respecting My Chart and giving such Movement

Comments

Excellent and very beautifully explained Elliot wave
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FinancelY r.sasiganapathy
@r.sasiganapathy, Thanks a lot, Its Wolfe Wave dear.
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