NIFTY analysis for today 21 Jun 24

Jun 21

As we discussed, NIFTY traded in a sideways roller coaster with huge volatility inside the provided channel.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading inside the indecisive channel zone. By the time it's in the channel, it's going to be a roller coaster sideways. If the market breaks the channel to the downside, it may lead to a good fall till 200 EMA [23350]. Inside the channel, it can again show good volatility, big up and down candles.
Trade the market with proper risk management.
Support levels: 23474, 23379, and 23340 or EMA(200)
Resistance levels: 23622, and upper resistance trendline

If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 1.19, which has increased from 0.97, shows a bullish sign in the market. 23550 is max-pain. 23600 also has significant good CE writing that will provide good resistance. Higher levels have lower CE writing than lower lower put writing. The market is not able to make a Higher high. However, as bulls are not able to push the market to the upside, it might lead to a short correction.

I am expecting the market :
Case 1: Sideways bullish in channel.
Case 2: Good momentum either side it breaks.

Reason:

1. RSI is 40-60, showing sideways structure.
   
2. Price < EMA(13) and Price > EMA(200), which indicates weak bulls market
   
3. PCR = 1.17 has increased from 0.97 and shows signs of bullishness and an increase in the bull's strength.
   
4. Price > VWAP shows a Bullish market structure.
   

Verdict: Neutral

Plan of action:
Case 1: Sideways: Sell 23500 PE & 23600 CE (Hedge it with 10/- premium options)
Case 2: Keep both inside channel. Exit the opposite side on either side, and it breaks.