protrader1969

NIFTY for 8th July

Short
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Budget is done and over with. India VIX was at around 13.5 which suggested very low expectation from FM (compare this with election results figure of around 39 and historical budget day figures of around 20-25) . And when there was no immediate relief/ measure for ailing economy, market tanked! So now at least for near term, Nifty is not going back in 12000 area. The bull run has ended. My guess is that slowly now the downslide will start. FIIs will wait for Q1FY20 results before renewing investment. One can confirm this with option chain where on the strikes of 11900,11950 & 12000, the total Call OI is 65.62 lakhs and fresh Call writing on Friday was 46.41 lakhs. Contrast this with total PUT OI on the strikes of 11700, 1750 &11800, which is 28.22 lakhs (less than half of CALL OI) and fresh PUT writing on friday was 14.50 lakhs (less than 1/3rd of CALL writing). On charts too, Friday's candle is a big bold red candle with almost negligible tails which signify complete bearishness. On futures chart, it also shows high volumes.11920 to 11980 is a kind of Supply area so one can go short here. Sell at around 11925 with a SL above 11962 and target of around 11875 (RR of 1.35). Get definitely out of trade if NIFTY breaches 12000 even momentarily. Though frankly, I do not believe NIFTY will even reach 11900 levels. If global markets remain the way they are, expect gap down on Monday.
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