That’s the question on everybody’s mind- Will Nifty cross 15k tomorrow (today’s high was 14913.70). Let’s examine through usual data:
1) FII & DII figures: FIIs were net buyers in Cash (impressive 1936.74 Crs) and DIIs were net Sellers (-768.55 Crs). In index futures though FIIs were Net sellers (-1555.11 Crs) and net buyers in stock futures (518 Crs). This means FII is unabashedly buying in equity left, right and centre like in pre-budget-profit booking days (i.e. before 20th Jan) but they are apprehensive of index in near short term- hence the selling ( note also that total selling was only 6113.15 Crs, which means FIIs sold approx. 25% more than they bought).
2) Option chain: On PUT side, highest total OI is understandably at 14500 (17,305 lots) and highest PUT writing also on same strike (10692 lots). 2nd highest total OI (11871 lots) is at 14700 and 2nd highest PUT writing (7,875 lots) is at 14800, where total OI is seen at 11,404 lots which is also significant. So, in a nutshell 14800 and then 14700 are looking as good supports. On CALL side, highest total OI (23,274 lots) and 2nd highest CALL writing is at 15000 strike and highest CALL writing (14,764 lots) is at 15500 strike- almost 600 points away! Such is the fear of Nifty rising! And that is why we have such high VIX, though it fell today. Interestingly 2nd highest total OI is at 15500-again 600 points away.
3) Charts- On daily chart look at the curve outlining Nifty highs (roughly) for past 4 sessions. Doesn’t it look like it is topping out? One more observation – Nifty and banknifty futures closed at discount than their respective spot prices.
4) At the time of writing this ( 11:10 pm) DJIA ( Dow jones ind. Average) is trading 241 points up (0.78% up). SGX Nifty closed at 14900.
So the world markets are looking good which means opening would be good/ gap –up. But 15000 will present resistance as suggested by option chain and chart as well. Remember FIIs too sold Nifty futures in significant amount and index futures closed in discount. The last three data points suggest that even though Nifty may open gap up and touch 15000, it will be very difficult for it to sustain there and selling may start. Therefore one can Sell nifty at 15000 and buy near today’s low between 14715-14750 (between 2 supports as pert option chain).
1) FII & DII figures: FIIs were net buyers in Cash (impressive 1936.74 Crs) and DIIs were net Sellers (-768.55 Crs). In index futures though FIIs were Net sellers (-1555.11 Crs) and net buyers in stock futures (518 Crs). This means FII is unabashedly buying in equity left, right and centre like in pre-budget-profit booking days (i.e. before 20th Jan) but they are apprehensive of index in near short term- hence the selling ( note also that total selling was only 6113.15 Crs, which means FIIs sold approx. 25% more than they bought).
2) Option chain: On PUT side, highest total OI is understandably at 14500 (17,305 lots) and highest PUT writing also on same strike (10692 lots). 2nd highest total OI (11871 lots) is at 14700 and 2nd highest PUT writing (7,875 lots) is at 14800, where total OI is seen at 11,404 lots which is also significant. So, in a nutshell 14800 and then 14700 are looking as good supports. On CALL side, highest total OI (23,274 lots) and 2nd highest CALL writing is at 15000 strike and highest CALL writing (14,764 lots) is at 15500 strike- almost 600 points away! Such is the fear of Nifty rising! And that is why we have such high VIX, though it fell today. Interestingly 2nd highest total OI is at 15500-again 600 points away.
3) Charts- On daily chart look at the curve outlining Nifty highs (roughly) for past 4 sessions. Doesn’t it look like it is topping out? One more observation – Nifty and banknifty futures closed at discount than their respective spot prices.
4) At the time of writing this ( 11:10 pm) DJIA ( Dow jones ind. Average) is trading 241 points up (0.78% up). SGX Nifty closed at 14900.
So the world markets are looking good which means opening would be good/ gap –up. But 15000 will present resistance as suggested by option chain and chart as well. Remember FIIs too sold Nifty futures in significant amount and index futures closed in discount. The last three data points suggest that even though Nifty may open gap up and touch 15000, it will be very difficult for it to sustain there and selling may start. Therefore one can Sell nifty at 15000 and buy near today’s low between 14715-14750 (between 2 supports as pert option chain).